The plans shift away from oil causes the middle east to lose their biggest source of income. Edit tag (make more specific)
Alterman 21, [John B; A Senior Vice President at Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director; Middle East Program; 08/09/21; “A New Revolution in the Middle East” https://www.csis.org/analysis/new-revolution-middle-east] iman
No region of the world is more immersed in the consequences of global climate change than the Middle East. The region accounts for about 30 percent of global oil production, and oil revenues drive government revenues in the region—either because the countries produce oil, or because the countries produce a labor force that works in oil-exporting countries and sends money home. Because of oil revenues, Middle Eastern governments can afford to employ large percentages of their own populations, and they do. As the world turns away from oil as an energy source, the economics of the Middle East will change profoundly.
At the same time, the Middle East is subject to the consequences of climate change. The region is already desperately water poor—nine of the ten most water-poor countries are in the Middle East. Drought is pushing farmers off their land, the region’s many coastal cities are threatened by sea level rise, and rising summer temperatures increasingly combine with humidity to put human survival at risk.
That is to say, the Middle East is embedded on both sides of the climate change issue. As global consumption patterns change, the Middle East will change profoundly; as the climate changes, the Middle East will change profoundly as well.
While there is a lot we don’t understand, one of the important issues is pacing. To hear some people describe it, the global energy transition is nigh. Widespread awareness of climate change has galvanized consumers and governments alike to get serious about abandoning hydrocarbons. The financial world has read the new sentiment and pivoted away from oil and gas. Investors are now pouring billions into renewables, and China sees renewable energy as a national security imperative. Soon, oil production will outstrip demand, and as prices fall, producers will produce even more to make up for lower volumes, suppressing prices still further. Oil prices are going to drop off a cliff.