Regional cooperation and independence solve Middle East escalation.

One theme of the present moment is that countries in the Middle East are making deals based on their own national interests rather than dancing to the tune of outsiders. This independence is paradoxically because of great power rivalry in the region, not despite it. With heightened rivalry between great powers, regional powers have more options and are acting more as free agents than committed allies of global powers

For example, Israel and Saudi Arabia are showing considerable independence from the United States on issues ranging from energy policy to approaches toward Russia’s war in Ukraine. Iran, in the context of its role in supplying drones to Russia for the Russia-Ukraine war, is also feeling more confident.

Moreover, while the United States is not withdrawing from the Middle East, its allies in the Persian Gulf have come to question its [US] reliability as a security guarantor and partner. This is having the effect of drawing them closer to, not further away from, Iran. The final straw for Saudi Arabia was the 2019 drone attacks on two oil refineries, Abqaiq and Khurais, owned by state company Aramco. These attacks were widely believed to be Tehran’s work, yet U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration did very little to respond despite its ongoing bluster toward Iran. For the Saudis, the Carter Doctrine, formulated in 1980 as a U.S. commitment to use force to defend its national interests in the Persian Gulf, had expired. This development no doubt propelled the Saudis towards amenability to negotiation with Iran. And by 2021, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman, too, were in full swing to broaden their dialogues with Iran.

There has been a belief in Washington that the Middle East can’t stabilize without U.S. involvement. But in the current environment it is clear the primary impetus to stabilization needs to come from the regional powers. As these recent moves toward dialogue demonstrate, a view is taking hold in the region that stabilization and de-escalation—from the civil wars in Yemen and Syria to problems in Lebanon and Iraq—require cooperation among the regional actors, with or without the United States’ involvement.