Latinx voters will decide whether Biden wins the election or not

The decades-long exodus of white working-class voters from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party has a new jolt: Latino working-class voters are joining the shift. Why it matters: To win key swing states, President Biden needs the support of some dissatisfied white, Latino and Black working-class voters who polls suggest are upset about inflation and some Democratic policies. The big picture: Six swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are widely expected to decide the Biden-Trump rematch. Voters without a college education will be key players in each state. Working-class voters also could tip tight Senate and House races in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Montana, Texas and Maryland at a time when both chambers have narrow majorities. State of play: Biden's poll numbers have been rising lately, but several surveys have indicated he is underperforming with non-white voters without college degrees — a constituency that has long been overwhelmingly Democratic. A YouGov poll commissioned by the Progressive Policy Institute at the end of 2023 found that working-class voters overwhelmingly believe they're worse off today than similar voters did 40 years ago. Voters said they trusted the GOP more than Democrats on the economy, immigration, and education — a dramatic shift from past elections. Zoom in: Among Latinos, Republicans also now have an edge over Democrats when it comes to dealing with the economy, according to an April Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll in partnership with Noticias Telemundo. Between the lines: GOP consultant Mike Madrid tells Axios the political shift among working-class Latino and Black voters has accelerated in recent elections because they see Democrats as out of touch with their way of life. These voter blocs are upset with Democrats' focusing on EVs while moving to phase out fossil fuels, which many see as endangering high-paying oil worker jobs, he said. Democrats' push to forgive college students' loans also is unpopular with some working-class voters who want more focus on making food and housing more affordable, Madrid said. "These are the new Reagan Democrats. They're at the country music festivals, not the country clubs," he said. Flashback: The shift among white working-class voters began in the 1960s, when anti-Vietnam War protests pushed some to support Republican Richard Nixon, said William A. Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Galston said Republicans since have made gains with white working-class voters, once the bedrock of the New Deal coalition, in almost every election. Any significant defection by working-class Latinos could be devastating for Democrats, he said. "I would call this the political story of my lifetime," Galston said.