Biden is doing uniquely bad with independents – even worse than Trump in 2020

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President Joe Biden’s latest 38% job approval rating remains largely unchanged from recent months and continues to put him well below the 48%+ threshold all reelected incumbents in the modern era have had at the time of the election. His ratings among the three major party groups are also steady, with 83% of Democrats, 33% of independents and 5% of Republicans expressing approval.

Given the extent of political polarization in the U.S. today, there is little chance of Republicans changing their minds about the job Biden is doing. The question hovering over Biden’s reelection chances, then, is whether he can make sufficient gains in approval among his fellow Democrats, and especially independents, during the final four months of the campaign to give him a reasonable chance of winning.

A review of recent incumbent approval ratings finds Biden’s current standing among Democrats is similar to the June readings for the last two Democratic presidents who successfully won reelection. Barack Obama in 2012 and Bill Clinton in 1996 had job approval ratings in the low 80s among Democrats in June of their reelection year. However, Biden is doing significantly worse among independents and Republicans than either Obama or Clinton was at this time.

In fact, Biden’s June job approval rating among independents is in line with the three presidents since 1980 who lost their reelection bid -- Jimmy Carter in 1980 (29%), George H.W. Bush in 1992 (31%) and Donald Trump in 2020 (36%).