Every theory of economic war is disproven by comprehensive studies.

Finally, the Great Recession did not lead to a deterioration in international security. Because political instability and violence can impinge on cross-border flows, increases in international conflict can dampen cross-border trade and exchange. During the initial stages of the crisis, multiple analysts asserted that the Great Recession would lead states to increase the use of political violence as a tool to stay in power.44 They voiced genuine concerns that the global economic downturn would lead to an increase in conflict—whether through greater internal repression, diversionary wars, arms races, or a ratcheting up of great-power rivalries. Violence in the Middle East, piracy on the high seas, border disputes in the South China Sea, riots in European cities, and even the disruptions of the Occupy movement fueled impressions of a global surge in public disorder. As fiscal austerity in the developed economies curtailed social spending, economists predicted an explosion of unrest. 45

Initially, there was some evidence of deterioration. Following the 2008 financial crisis, there was a spike in global piracy, particularly off the Horn of Africa. The International Maritime Bureau reported that in 2009 alone, there was a 40 percent surge in piracy attacks, with attacks near Somalia quadrupling during the same period. The Institute for Economics and Peace, which has constructed the Global Peace Index annually since 2007, reported in 2013 that there had been a 5 percent deterioration in global peace since 2008. 46

A closer look at the numbers, however, reveals more encouraging findings. What seemed to be an inexorable increase in piracy, for example, turned out to be a blip. By September 2013, the total numbers of piracy attacks had fallen to their lowest levels in seven years. Attacks near Somalia, in particular, declined substantially; the total number of attacks fell by 70 percent in 2012 and an additional 86 percent in the first nine months of 2013. Actual hijackings were down 43 percent compared to 2008/9 levels.47 The US Navy's figures reveal similar declines in the number and success rate of pirate attacks.48 Security concerns have not dented the opening of the global economy. As for the effect of the Great Recession on political conflict, the aggregate effects were surprisingly modest. A key conclusion of the Institute for Economics and Peace in its 2012 report was that "the average level of peacefulness in 2012 is approximately the same as it was in 2007."49 The institute's concern in its 2013 report about a decline in peace was grounded primarily in the increase in homicide rates—a source of concern, to be sure, but not exactly the province of global governance. Both interstate violence and global military expenditures have declined since the start of the financial crisis. Other studies confirm that the Great Recession has not triggered any increase in violent conflict. Looking at the post-crisis years, Lotta Themner and Peter Wallensteen conclude, "The pattern is one of relative stability when we consider the trend for the past five years." 50 The decline in secular violence that started with the end of the Cold War has not been reversed. Rogers Brubaker 73/452 observes that "the crisis has not to date generated the surge in protectionist nationalism or ethnic exclusion that might have been expected." 51