---significantly increase its public funding in agricultural technology, by at least doubling current investment.

Doubling government funding for agricultural research and development (R&D) would have tremendous environmental and economic benefits, according to a  in the Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics. A substantial increase in R&D funding is needed now more than ever to manage extreme weather and new pest pressures, to help U.S. farmers better compete with producers internationally, and to reduce the food system’s large environmental footprint. 

However, increasing R&D funding would require a significant new commitment from policymakers. After reaching a peak in 2002, spending on U.S. public agricultural R&D has fallen by approximately  over the past two decades. Public agricultural R&D has historically been the backbone of American agricultural innovation, reducing food prices, enhancing food security, and enabling farmers to produce more with less land and other inputs. Every $1 invested in public agricultural R&D has historically  to consumers and the rest of society. So the decline in R&D spending represents a substantial threat to continued agricultural advancement and gains in environmental sustainability.

The new study, by Dr. Uris Baldos, associate professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University, is the first to estimate the impact of U.S. public R&D funding on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and land use, as well as on productivity, farm output, and prices. It finds that substantially raising R&D funding would be a cost-effective climate mitigation strategy. Specifically, the study finds that doubling public agricultural R&D funding would reduce emissions at a cost of roughly $12 per metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent, while also raising output, limiting global land use, and reducing crop and livestock prices. 

<<<Shrunk for Readability>>>

Analytical Approach

The analysis accounts for a number of key dynamics, including: 

It estimates the impact of U.S. public R&D funding on farmer productivity based on historical statistical relationships.

It assesses how U.S. R&D investments affect productivity in other regions of the world, a type of positive spillover where scientists and producers internationally build upon or adapt U.S. research.

It uses a simulation of the global agricultural system – the SIMPLE model – to project how changes in productivity affect trade and production in different world regions.

It estimates how these changes in productivity and production in the U.S. and each world region affect land use, GHG emissions from agricultural deforestation and other land-use change, and emissions from on-farm use of fertilizer, fuel, and other inputs.

Integrating these complex interactions between U.S. policy and global production provides unique insight into the value of R&D funding.

Projected Impacts from Doubling U.S. Public Agricultural R&D Spending

The analysis projects the impacts of increasing federal, state, and other public agricultural R&D spending by 7% per year from 2025 to 2035, nearly a doubling in funding over a decade. Compared to a business-as-usual scenario where R&D funding increases at its historical rate (about 2% per year), the doubling scenario would have huge benefits:

Agricultural Productivity: Agricultural productivity is projected to increase by about 39% in the United States and 40% globally by 2050 under the business-as-usual scenario. But with a doubling of R&D spending, productivity is expected to rise by 62% in the United States and 44% globally.

Farm Output and Prices: With a doubling of R&D spending, U.S. crop and livestock output would rise by 70%, significantly more than the 50% expected under the business-as-usual scenario. This, in turn, would reduce crop and livestock prices, with declines of about 30% and 40%, respectively, in the United States by 2050. These are significantly steeper price declines than the 19% and 29% decreases expected under business as usual.

Land Use: With rising global food demand, nearly 94 million hectares of forests, grassland, and other land – roughly the size of Texas, Iowa, and Illinois combined – will be converted to cropland globally by 2050 in the business-as-usual scenario. But greater R&D funding and productivity can significantly slow this farmland expansion. By making U.S. farmers more competitive internationally, the doubling of U.S. R&D spending is projected to marginally increase U.S. cropland area, but reduce global land-use change by about 17 million hectares, about the size of Wisconsin.

GHG Emissions: Doubling R&D spending is projected to reduce global emissions by about 213.4 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year through 2050, compared to the business-as-usual scenario. This is largely driven by the avoiding of deforestation and other conversion of land to cropland. Emissions from fertilizer, fuel use, livestock, and other sources are also projected to be lower as scientific advances and technological innovation enable farmers to use inputs more efficiently.