The squo won’t reach 2 degrees – models, government funding, green energy transition.

And finally, let’s talk about climate change. This is a real threat to the world, and one that we haven’t dealt with yet. But there are a number of reasons to think that the doomer case is overdone.

For one thing, recent climate models have  most of the worst-case scenarios for warming. Although it’ll be very difficult to hold warming below the 1.5 degrees generally considered “safe”, there’s  that we can hold warming below the 2 degree level, which is around the point where words like “catastrophic” start to make sense:

Also, estimates of emissions during the 2010s have now been revised downward, and emissions are now growing only slowly:

Many forecasters  the peak of annual global emissions to occur in the next couple of years.

And meanwhile, our institutions of science, industry, and government have now all been alerted to the danger, and are pouring increasing resources into the green energy transition:

In other words, climate change is definitely going to be a bumpy ride for the planet, and it’s not yet certain that we’ll defeat it in time to save ourselves from major harm. But recent progress is extremely encouraging.

In other words, none of the standard threats that the doomers wring their hands and wail about is as dire as they would have us believe.