4--- There is currently a shift away from American security
Kajiwara et al. 23 – (Kevin Kajiwara is the Co-President and Political Risk Advisor for Teneo, “What to Watch in 2024: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk Team,” 12-6-2023, https://www.teneo.com/insights/articles/what-to-watch-in-2024-outlooks-for-the-year-ahead-from-teneos-geopolitical-risk-team/)//NA
The events of 2023 suggest that the global system has entered an intense period of structural transition that will reorder geopolitics and reshape the international business environment in fundamental ways. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, frozen conflicts have reignited in places like Israel/Gaza and Nagorno-Karabakh, coups once again became commonplace in Africa, and tensions rose between China/the Philippines, Serbia/Kosovo, and elsewhere. These events are reshaping the environment of geopolitical risks and opportunities faced by businesses and investors.
The underlying causes of current shifts are hard to identify definitively in real time. The impacts, however, are more readily observable: a move away from U.S. unipolarity and towards multipolarity in global security; a messy battle for influence between Washington and its partners on one side and revisionist powers like China and Russia on the other; and various middle powers and non-state actors acting more boldly in-between to maximize their own interests. In this new age of uncertainty, high-impact events are set to become increasingly common, moving the world beyond an era of black swans and into one of steadily heightened risk.