Chinese innovation threatens to overtake the US.

Naïve arrogance keeps too many Americans from seeing that China has become a tech powerhouse. China has a credible path to gaining technological parity (and in some cases, superiority) in military applications.

Yet too many believe all the US needs to do is to keep the CCP from stealing American technologies (essential – yes, sufficient – no). They have not accepted the fact that the US trails in key technologies and risks falling behind in others. They don’t fully appreciate how harmful America losing its innovative edge would be to its prosperity and security, now and in the future.

America must awaken from complacency and dedicate itself to winning the race for tech leadership.

China is Competing for Tech Leadership

Ever since JFK’s call to win the space race accelerated investment in talent and discovery, America has enjoyed the advantage of being home to much of the most innovative technologies. This has propelled its prosperity by making its products in high demand and advanced its security by giving its military an advantage over any foe. Yet the CCP’s multi-decade focus on achieving leadership in key technologies has undercut America’s advantage.

A recent study found China leading in 37 out of 44 crucial technologies based on the proportion each nation had of the most highly cited research reports. For those frustrated that open-source publication accelerates the dissemination of dual-use technologies, the good news is China is publishing even more than America. Neither the classified insights the US gains nor the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) network of military science academies are included in the comparison. The picture may change if they were. Yet dominant Chinese market shares in critical minerals, batteries, EVs, solar cells, telecommunications, and more lend credence to China’s technological advances.

A report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) suggests...

...no one should have been surprised when China tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic glide vehicle. China publishes four times the most cited papers as the US on hypersonic and advanced aircraft engines. It also leads in other sciences vital to hypersonic flight.

Achieving speeds above Mach 5 requires advances in low-friction surfaces to reduce and dissipate heat produced by air friction. It also demands the development of novel materials able to handle high temperatures and high forces on control surfaces. China publishes three times as many highly cited papers as the second-place country (often, but not always the US) on novel metamaterials, eight times as many on coatings and three times as many on high-specification machining processes. These are areas where China manufacturing producing nearly twice as much output as the US, gives the PRC an advantage.

The CCP’s penchant for secrecy is reflected in its research focus. Their research leadership in photonic sensors, quantum communications, advanced optical communications, and post-quantum cryptography could allow the CCP to make their communications impenetrable by the West and make the West’s classified communications vulnerable.

The ASPI study shows the US leading in research publications in high-performance computing, integrated circuits design and fabrication, and natural language processing. But it trails China in machine learning, advanced analytics, and protective cybersecurity technologies.

It shows the US leading in terms of research in small satellites and space launches, but trailing China in drones, autonomous systems, and advanced robotics.

Finally, it shows the US leading in quantum computing research, but trailing China in post-quantum cryptography, quantum communications, and quantum sensors.

China Contesting Military Leadership

How does this translate into military applications? During the decades America spent fighting terrorism, the CCP rapidly built its military capabilities. The US military is sprinting to retool to deter great power conflict. At the time of JFK’s address, defense spending represented 9% of GDP. Today it is at a post-World War II low of 3.5%.

Since the time of JFK’s inauguration, the Department of Defense’s (DoD) research funding has declined from 36% of global R&D to a mere 3% now. Today’s America’s military is more a consumer than a provider of technology. The CCP has fused its quest for technological and military leadership. It is no different in the US. The contest for technological military superiority is in great part determined by which side can more quickly adapt commercially developed technologies.

The CCP has the advantage of building anew while the US is handicapped by needing to replace an installed base of aging technology and bloated base structure that is aggressively defended by elected representatives in Congress prioritizing keeping federal jobs in their districts.

The CCP has aggressively steered its industry to focus on technologies that give its military a technological edge, while US industry remains focused on gaining the greater payback from consumer markets.

Captains of American industry gave Xi Jinping a standing ovation during his US visit last year, even as the US military is increasingly reliant on industry for its innovative edge.