American competitiveness sustains US hegemony.

Separately, policy uncertainties can be resolved with time, and explicit effort, through science itself. Much has been learned about how science and innovation operate, and where breakthroughs come from. Further advancing our understanding will depend on continued research effort, and the scientific toolkit is powerful here, from the expanding access to comprehensive data about scientists, inventors, entrepreneurs, and their funders, to the expanding set of empirical tools, which include experimental, network, and machine learning methods. Continuing research will sharpen our choices and promises to raise the social returns even further. 5. Conclusion Science and innovation investments are central to the national interest. These investments can create higher standards of living, longer and healthier lives, and an increasingly competitive workforce. They can support national resilience in the face of crises, like the global pandemic, and they can sustain national leadership in the world, including on economic, political, and security dimensions. Given these potential benefits, this chapter has considered whether the United States invests enough in science and innovation, and specifically whether greater public support is warranted. We have asked several related questions: What are the arguments for or against a public role in the science and innovation system? What is the evidence? How are we doing? What policy changes do we need? A primary case for public action sees new ideas – the fruits of science and innovation -- as “public goods” that the private sector will underprovide. Meanwhile, skeptical perspectives emphasize the regularity of failed R&D efforts, doubt the capacity for successful public investment, and question the role of science and domain experts in driving practical and important advances. After laying out these different perspectives and illuminating them with examples, the chapter turned to systematic evidence, including the very latest evidence. The conclusions from systematic evidence are clear. The social returns to R&D investments are enormous and greatly in excess of the private returns. Public investments in science appear closely aligned with public use, and domain experts are the primary drivers of breakthroughs in both science and marketplace innovation. In short, the U.S. science and innovation system as it stands delivers far more than its resource costs, and we underinvest in science and innovation to an enormous degree. For every $1 we invest, we conservatively receive $5 in benefit. Effectively, the public has at hand an extraordinary machine to benefit human progress and the national interest, yet we fail to use this machine anywhere close to its full capacity. To meet the national interest, policy can adapt in first-order, high-return ways. This chapter has emphasized three poles of action to reap the rewards: (1) scaling funding resources; (2) scaling the people pipeline into science and innovation careers; and (3) making diverse investments across the landscape of opportunities. These investments promise to raise our standard of living, accelerate progress against disease, increase the competitiveness of the American workforce, solve for national and global crises, and secure the nation’s leadership in the world.