Trump wins but its close
Oliver Roeder and Eva Xiao 7/23/24“What are Kamala Harris’s chances against Donald Trump?” https://www.ft.com/content/77b32462-3d56-43f9-bb4d-44f8c58edc8a Oliver Roeder is the FT's senior data journalist in the US. Before joining the FT, he was a Nieman fellow at Harvard studying artificial intelligence and a senior writer at FiveThirtyEight. Roeder holds a PhD in economics with a focus on game theory and is the author of "Seven Games: A Human History." Eva Xiao is a data journalist for the FT in the US. Before joining the FT, she was a foreign correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and Agence France-Presse in Hong Kong and Beijing, respectively. In 2021, one of her stories for the WSJ was part of a series that was a Pulitzer Prize finalist. She has a computer science degree from Dartmouth College and is currently based in New York. //$tobo
US vice-president Kamala Harris has now secured enough delegates to replace Joe Biden as the Democratic party’s presidential candidate against Donald Trump in this year’s election. The question is how she would fare against Trump in November. A poll on Monday by Morning Consult, the first to be conducted since Biden dropped out of the race, gave Trump a two-point lead over Harris, at 47 per cent to 45 per cent. It was down sharply from the six-point advantage the former president enjoyed over the 81-year-old incumbent. The survey also found that more Democratic voters now feel strongly motivated to vote than Republicans, by 27 per cent to 24 per cent. Trump remains a clear but not prohibitive favourite to win back the White House, according to prediction markets, but Harris’s odds have narrowed.