Harris is ahead in Minnesota

A Democrat has won the presidential race in Minnesota every cycle since 1976 and Vice President Kamala Harris is favorably positioned to extend this streak in 2024, as she currently has a 6-point advantage over former President Donald Trump in a Fox News survey released Friday.

A majority of voters support Harris in a head-to-head matchup against Trump, 52% to 46%, nearly matching the 2020 vote (52.40% Biden, 45.28% Trump). These results sit right at the margin of sampling error.

The survey was completed after the July 13 assassination attempt on Trump and Biden’s July 21 withdrawal announcement and endorsement of Harris.

Harris is bolstered by strong support from urban voters (65%), suburban women (63%), White voters with a college degree (60%), women (58%), voters ages 65 and over (58%), union households (57%), and Independents (53%).

Trump’s coalition consists of White evangelical Christians (69%), White men with no college degree (59%), rural voters (56%), men under age 45 (54%), and voters under age 30 (52%).

Harris has stronger ideological (93% of liberal voters back her) and party support (95% of Democrats) than Trump (81% of conservatives and 93% of Republicans).

Nearly 7 in 10 Minnesotans are extremely motivated to vote this November and they go for Harris by 7 points.

The vice president also does better than other potential Biden replacements in hypothetical matchups against Trump: Gretchen Whitmer 49% vs. Trump 46%, and Josh Shapiro 49% vs. Trump 45%.

In the expanded ballot, Harris drops below 50% support, but Trump suffers more: Harris 47%, Trump 41%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 7%, and Jill Stein and Cornel West at 1% each. Slightly more two-way Trump supporters defect to third parties (10%) than Harris supporters (7%).