Trump is ahead in swing states

Today, in our ninth edition of this tracker, our Presidential Voting Intention poll of 6,927 swing state voters finds Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in seven out of the nine potential swing states.

In a hypothetical match-up between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. included as an independent candidate, Trump leads Harris by between two and eight points in seven of the states, while Trump and Harris are tied in Wisconsin (44% each). Harris leads Trump in Minnesota by three points (44% vs 41%).

Compared to last week’s swing states polling, in which Joe Biden was prompted as the Democratic nominee, Donald Trump’s lead over Harris is wider than it was last week over Biden in both Florida (eight points, +1) and Michigan (three points, +2), while his lead remains unchanged in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris is narrower than it was over Biden in three states: Arizona (three points, -1), Nevada (two points, -1), and North Carolina (three points, -3).

For context, in the 2020 Presidential Election, Joe Biden carried Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Donald Trump defeated Biden in both Florida and North Carolina.