Harris will win the popular vote, trump will win the presidency
Nelson 7/31, Joshua Nelson is a reporter for Fox News Digital, “Nate Silver releases first election model since Harris became presumptive Dem nominee, teases possible trend”, 7/31/24. JLB, https://www.foxnews.com/media/nate-silver-releases-first-election-model-since-harris-became-presumptive-dem-nominee-teases-possible-trend
Statistician Nate Silver released on Tuesday his first election model since Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee.
Silver wrote in Substack that although Harris is favored to win the popular vote, she is "a modest underdog to Trump in the Electoral College, risking a repeat of the popular vote-Electoral College split that cost Democrats the 2000 and 2016 elections."
He added that Harris is in a better position than President Biden was when he was the incumbent challenger. Furthermore, Silver said that Biden had a 27% chance of beating Trump before he withdrew from the race.