TIME. EVEN IF the economy seems high now---it will inevitably lead to a recession---proven by consumer spending, families, loans, pandemic recovery, high borrowing costs, home sales, manufacturing, factories, AND unemployment rate.

But economists say the pickup in economic growth, and consumer spending in particular, isn’t expected to last long term. Many lower- and middle-income families are struggling to cover basics, and more people are falling behind on loan payments. The rapid recovery since the onset of the pandemic has recently lost steam, as high borrowing costs force households and businesses to rethink spending. Home sales have stalled, manufacturing is slowing, and factories are seeing a drop-off in demand for U.S.-made goods. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate — at 4.1 percent as of June — has edged up for three straight months. Still, economists say a gradual cool-down is a welcome reprieve from years of too-hot growth that stoked inflation. The labor market remains strong, and consumers are still spending, albeit with less gusto than they were a year ago. A recent boost in inventory has helped lower prices and drive sales at Mohawk Chevrolet, a car dealership in Ballston Spa, N.Y. After years of pandemic-related shortages and hiccups, president Andy Guelcher says he has finally been able to build up his stock of cars. “We’re rebalancing after what was very, very light inventory in 2023,” he said. “As a result of that, pricing has gotten more competitive, and we’re starting to see a lot more consumers pop up. They were waiting for a deal, and now they can get one.” The surprisingly upbeat GDP report adds new uncertainty to whether the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September, as previously expected. The central bank has kept borrowing costs at a two-decade high since last summer to temper inflation. In congressional testimony this month, Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell said the United States is “no longer an overheated economy,” thanks in large part to a moderating labor market. “Conditions have returned to about where they stood on the eve of the pandemic: strong, but not overheated,” he added.