Strong fundamentals disprove recession
Timiraos 24 (Nick Timiraos is chief economics correspondent for The Wall Street Journal. “Why the Recession Still Isn’t Here” 6/7/2024. Accessed 6/19/2024. https://www.wsj.com/economy/recession-inflation-fed-jobs-report-b9d1fb28) wtk
The recession, predicted by business executives, economists, and investors, refuses to show up.
Steady hiring continues to fuel consumer spending and, in turn, an economic expansion unlike any the U.S. has seen. Employers added 2.75 million jobs over the last 12 months, including 272,000 in May, the Labor Department said Friday. The unemployment rate has been at or below 4% for 30 months, something that last occurred during the Vietnam War in the late 1960s and the Korean War in the early 1950s.
Of course, just because everyone who predicted a recession has been wrong doesn’t mean they won’t eventually be right. Though the unemployment rate remains low, it’s risen from its postpandemic extremes: The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.0% last month from 3.9% in April. It was as low as 3.4% in April 2023. Already, the rate at which companies hire workers has fallen to levels last seen seven years ago. Job vacancies, which soared during the pandemic, have returned to prepandemic levels; if they fall much lower, a higher unemployment rate beckons. So far, labor market imbalances have resolved themselves without a recession.