Aging crises prevent war.
Brooks ’19 [Deborah et al.; 2019; Government Professor at Dartmouth; International Security, “The Demographic Transition of War: Why Young Societies are Conflict Prone and Old Societies Are the Most Peaceful,” vol. 43, no. 3]
Regarding the first question, a number of studies have examined how so- called youth bulges contribute to violence and conflict within states, revealing that having a high ratio of people aged 15-24 among the adult population increases the likelihood of domestic terrorism and civil war.3 Yet no study has thus far examined, either theoretically or empirically, how youth bulges alter the probability of military conflict between states. Ours is the first to do so. Our empirical analysis finds that countries with a large number of young people as a proportion of the total population are more likely to engage in interstate conflict than are countries with fewer young people.
As for the second question, some scholars have theorized that old societies are likely to be more peaceful.4 Yet, the theoretical reasons why we would ex¬pect societal aging to lower the likelihood of conflict have not been fully delineated, and no scholar has evaluated this proposition empirically. Our empirical analysis shows that old countries are the least likely to engage in international conflict.