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This year, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has stepped up its enforcement of antitrust laws, bringing major lawsuits against companies including Amazon, Google, and Meta. Recent YouGov polling finds that most Americans support antitrust laws and believe that penalties for violating them should be increased. The vast majority hold negative views of monopolies, and while most believe there is at least some competition within U.S. industries, more than one-third believe it is not enough. Americans are far more likely to believe stricter antitrust enforcement would help the U.S. economy rather than hurt it — and the same holds for views on the effects of stricter enforcement on consumers, workers, and small businesses. Large companies, on the other hand, are more likely to be thought to be hurt by such laws rather than helped.

When asked broadly, most Americans (67%) say it is a bad thing for a single company to dominate a market; just 6% say it is good, 16% say neutral, and 11% aren't sure.

Moreover, in a democracy, the success of the antitrust enterprise depends on the public’s continuing support. But, as Daniel Crane noted recently:

The bipartisan consensus that antitrust should solely focus on economic efficiency and consumer welfare has quite suddenly come under attack from prominent voices [from the political left and right] calling for a dramatically enhanced role for antitrust law in mediating a variety of social, economic, and political friction points, including employment, wealth inequality, data privacy and security, and democratic values.164

A new poll found overwhelming support from voters in both parties for two key antitrust bills that are facing a dwindling deadline to pass this year.

The survey of registered voters was conducted by Edison Research for the Tech Oversight Project, a group pushing for antitrust reform that is primarily funded by the Omidyar Network and the Economic Security Project. The poll asked voters about their support for two proposals that target the market power of dominant tech firms.

WITH PRESIDENT JOE Biden’s departure from the 2024 race, Republicans are scrambling to recalibrate their electoral strategy, which was premised on the idea that Biden’s unpopularity would sink down-ballot candidates, allowing the GOP to flip control of the Senate. A recent poll out of Nebraska, meanwhile, suggests that at least one Senate assumed to be reliably Republican may be up for grabs. In a poll conducted before Biden’s decision not to seek reelection, Dan Osborn, a Nebraska labor leader running as an independent, tied with two-term incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer. The poll — commissioned by the Osborn campaign, conducted by Impact Research, and advised by Republican firm Red Wave Strategy Group — shows the Senate candidates tied at 42-42. When respondents were asked how they would vote in the Senate race given an independent versus a Republican, 57 percent of Republicans and 54 percent of Trump voters said they were open to voting for an independent. Statewide, survey respondents said they preferred former President Donald Trump to Biden, 59 to 36. And in parts of the state where the presidential race was tighter, voters showed even more enthusiasm for Osborn. In Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which includes Omaha, Trump led Biden 49-47 in a head-to-head matchup, while Osborn bested Fischer 44-40. Three of the four independents currently in the Senate caucus with the Democrats, while the fourth, Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, is aligned with Democrats for committee purposes. Osborn, for his part, has declined to accept the endorsement of either major party, though many of his policy priorities align with positions traditionally adopted by Democrats. Democratic officials in Nebraska had considered supporting Osborn’s candidacy and did not field a Democratic candidate against him in the primaries. Just one day after the state primaries, Osborn said he would not accept the party’s endorsement, prompting state officials to publish a statement saying Osborn “betrayed” their trust. While the party later said it intended to field a write-in candidate against Osborn and Fischer for the general election, that has not yet happened. Unlike the 73-year-old Fischer, who has served in politics for more than two decades, Osborn would be a first-time politician. The 48-year-old military veteran is best known as a labor leader. He was the president of the Bakery, Confectionery, Tobacco Workers, and Grain Millers International Union Local 50G. Two years ago, Osborn helped lead workers in a strike against food giant Kellogg’s that lasted more than two months and also included factories in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee. Last month, he won the endorsement of the United Auto Workers union. His platform includes raising pay for service members, confronting agricultural consolidation, and legalizing medical marijuana. He also calls to pass the Protecting the Right to Organize Act and oppose “extreme national measures to ban abortion.” He also urges rail safety reform, including measures like requiring two-person crews and increasing fines for violating rail safety laws — reforms floated after the disastrous Norfolk Southern derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, last year.

Osborn, who launched his campaign in October, raised $1,035,249 from roughly 31,000 donors in the second quarter of 2024, between April 1 and July 30 — making the average contribution $33. Fischer’s campaign, meanwhile, raised $678,985 over the same period, according to campaign finance reports. While the state has been a Republican stronghold for years, respondents to the recent poll were not as enthused about Fischer herself did not have as strong a foothold in the recent poll. Her favorability rating was a net negative two, and roughly as many voters said they preferred “someone else” (40 percent) to reelecting Fischer (41 percent). Moreover, 68 percent of respondents said they are open to supporting an independent candidate for Senate, while just 21 percent said they would only support a Republican. Osborn also led in the poll among those registered with neither party, earning the support of 65 percent of independents, while Fischer got only 16 percent. Three earlier polls for the race showed mixed results, with a recent survey giving Fischer a significant edge while previous ones showed a much tighter contest. A poll commissioned by the Fischer campaign earlier this month showed the incumbent beating Osborn by 26 percentage points. More than 75 percent of respondents, however, said they had no opinion of Osborn, didn’t know who he was, or declined to share an opinion of him. Conversely, only 14 percent of respondents did not know who Fischer was. The poll otherwise followed trends, showing Trump beating Biden by 19 points. A November survey had Osborn leading Fischer by a slim 2 points, with respondents responding more favorably to Osborn’s background than Fischer’s. Another poll conducted in late April showed Osborn trailing Fischer by 4 points, with 30 percent of voters undecided. Now as Republicans’ nationwide strategy has been upended by Biden’s exit from the presidential race, the latest poll suggests that the Fischer campaign may have cause for concern as well.

Sixteen months later, as the Republican majority has shrunk even further, House Speaker Mike Johnson is admitting that possibility. He told Fox News on Monday that there is a slim chance he could lose the speakership to Democratic House leader in the next few weeks amid a wave of early retirements. "That's a risk,” Johnson said of Democrats taking control of the House. Already three Republican lawmakers have resigned from their posts mid-term—Reps. , Bill Johnson, and Ken Buck. A fourth Republican, Rep. Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin, is expected to step down in mid-April, bringing the party’s former nine-seat majority down to just 217-213 as Republicans lost a fifth seat after was expelled from the House. The spate of early departures means that Republicans can soon only afford to lose one single vote when all lawmakers are present and voting, since 216 votes would constitute a majority. The shrinking Republican majority has raised concerns among some in the party about the potential for an unprecedented shift in power mid-Congress. “It's very feasible that Democrats will be running the House before the election,” says Brian Darling, a GOP strategist and former counsel to Sen. Rand Paul. “It's time for Republicans to have a team meeting and say, ‘okay, guys, this majority is falling apart and if you keep acting like this, we're not going to have a majority.’” As Republicans grapple with the ongoing wave of early retirements, party leadership has little room for error as even a single additional departure could tip the scales in favor of the Democrats, which has never happened in the middle of a congressional term. Buck, who stepped down in March due to what he called growing dysfunction in Congress, has hinted that Republicans could see more resignations in the coming months if bitter divisions inside the GOP continue to escalate. “Republicans would be smart to be worried,” says Matthew Green, a politics professor at Catholic University. “I don't think the odds are very high that the Republicans will lose their majority, but it is a much bigger possibility now than it's ever been. And I think it's clear that the Republican leadership is worried about it.” Green adds that if another Republican resigns or experiences an unexpected health crisis leading to their absence from voting, then Democrats could secure the majority before the November elections. It would be the first time such a shift has happened in the House mid-term, with the closest parallel coming in 1930 when Republicans lost their slim majority before the session began after several members died and Democrats won special elections to replace them. Complicating matters, some Republicans are already considering strategies to remove Johnson from his leadership position and trigger a vote for a new Speaker of the House. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a far-right Georgia Republican, the speakership on March 22 after Johnson had to rely on Democratic votes to pass a critical government funding package. The move could set up a risky leadership vote that would test the unity of the Republican conference. “If we vacated this speaker, we’d end up with a Democrat,” Rep. Matt Gaetz, a Florida Republican, warned immediately after Greene triggered the motion, adding that he believes some Republicans would vote for Jeffries.

Across the country, Democrats are winning special elections and overperforming in elections they have predictably lost. And it's fueling optimism among Democrats looking at a challenging election year for both the White House and Congress. "Polls don't vote. People vote. And that's what's been happening," says Democratic Rep. Jim McGovern, a veteran lawmaker from Massachusetts who has served in both the minority and the majority. Despite what the polls say, "people have been voting, and they've been voting Democratic. I feel really good about November – and not just about the president. I feel really good about us taking back the House." Experts caution that a special election win in New York – particularly a district Biden won in 2020, albeit when the district was drawn to be more Democratic-friendly – does not a national movement make. The president still has abysmally low approval ratings, and national and battleground state polls show him in a tight race with his likely fall opponent, former President Donald Trump. "I think that Democrats would be making a lot of assumptions if they, A, took their great joy from this result as some sort of bellwether for November or, B, thought there was some kind of playbook that came out of it" to win races in districts in other parts of the country, says Syracuse University professor Grant Reeher. In a 2022 election season when Democrats did surprisingly well, they fared poorly in blue New York, Reeher notes, losing four congressional seats to Republicans. Tuesday's special election could just be the state returning to its mostly Democratic roots, he says. And the immigration issue – which Democrats are trying to seize as their own, focusing on House Republicans' refusal to consider a bipartisan border security package negotiated by the Senate – remains a vulnerability for both Biden and congressional Democrats. But the numbers that matter – performances in contests ranging from mayoral and state legislative races to presidential primaries – give still-nervous Democrats reason to hope. In November, Democrats flipped the Virginia state House, gained seats in the New Jersey state legislature, held onto the governorship in deep red Kentucky, and won city council and school board races across the country. Last month, Democrats picked up a critical state House seat in Orlando, Florida – an important indicator of political mood in the I-4 corridor, home to many Hispanics. Nationally, Democrats are outpacing Republicans in voter registration, going from trailing the GOP in September (28% Republican registration and 24% Democratic registration) to leading in January (27% Democratic registration versus 25% Republican registration), . Tuesday was a big night for Democrats as well. Not only did Suozzi shrink the GOP's already whisper-thin majority in the House with his win in New York, but Democrat Jim Prokopiak ensured Democratic control of Pennsylvania’s state House with a blowout over Republican Candace Cabanas in a race predicted to be much closer. The win was the sixth special election victory for Democrats in Pennsylvania, allowing them to retain control of a chamber they flipped in 2022.

[Jared, June 10, “Senate Democrats outperforming Biden raises possibility of historic split-ticket voting”, https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4710984-biden-trump-rfk-senate-democrats-2024-split-ticket/]

Senate Democrats in key battleground states have consistently performed better than President Biden in polls, fueling speculation that November could see the highest levels of ticket-splitting in years. Voting for different parties on the same ticket has become increasingly rare in the U.S. amid growing political polarization. While some down-ballot Democrats are polling better than the president now, observers caution the gap between them will likely shrink as the election draws closer. Still, the relative polling strength of Democratic Senate candidates in states like Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania has suggested that at least some voters will back them while supporting Donald Trump or a non-Biden presidential candidate. “This is more split-ticket voting than we would traditionally see, but there’s also a higher undecided factor than we would normally see. I think that plays into it,” said Matt Taglia, the senior director of Emerson College Polling. “The dynamics of this race are just so different from previous elections, even from 2020.” As much as split-ticket voting regularly gets discussed during election seasons, it has grown increasingly rare. In 1972, President Nixon defeated Democrat George McGovern in a landslide, winning 49 states. But 190 House districts elected a Democratic representative that year, according to Pew Research Center. In 1988, nearly 150 districts voted one way for president and another for House. But in 2012, that number was only 26. The 2016 elections marked the first time in modern history that every state voted for the same party in the presidential race as their Senate race. The feat nearly repeated in 2020, when Maine was the only state to split its presidential and Senate votes, backing Biden but also reelecting Sen. Susan Collins (R). With five months still to go before Election Day 2024, polling indicates a possible return to at least somewhat higher split-ticketing. Although polls have mostly shown Biden trailing Trump in key battleground states, one source of optimism for Democrats has been the consistent polling advantage of their Senate candidates. Democratic candidates in most of the key states that will determine which party controls the Senate — Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — are ahead of their Republican opponents by at least a couple of points, according to the polling average from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill. Pollsters across various polling organizations are seeing this, while finding Biden behind by a few points. A CBS News/YouGov poll from last month of Arizona showed Biden down by 5 points and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), the likely Democratic nominee for Senate, ahead of his likely GOP opponent, Kari Lake, by more than 10. While not as dramatic of a difference, an Emerson poll of the state from late April showed Trump leading by 4 points but Lake trailing by 2. An Emerson poll of Pennsylvania showed Trump ahead by 4 points, but Sen. Bob Casey (D) leading Republican David McCormick by the same amount. A New York Times/Siena College poll released last month showed Biden with a 12-point deficit in Nevada; if true, a concerning sign for his prospects there. But the same poll showed Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) ahead of her likely challenger, Republican Sam Brown, by 2. The differences vary somewhat by state to state and poll to poll, but the disparity has been consistent for months. The dynamic is also being seen in North Carolina, where Biden trails Trump by a few points, but Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein and GOP candidate Mark Robinson are neck and neck. Taglia said the disparity is being fueled by certain Trump voters and self-identifying Republicans backing Democratic Senate candidates. He added that independents are also leaning toward these candidates, giving them the edge.

Five, 10, and even 15% or more of swing-state voters are telling pollsters that they plan to support Donald Trump for president and a Democrat for the U.S. Senate this November, making the battle for control of the country's upper chamber a nail-biter. Around the country, “we’re seeing a rebound of ticket-splitting,” said David Macdonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida. Divided loyalties on the ballot were common 50 years ago, but they all but died out in the last few elections. Their sudden comeback is giving Republican congressional hopefuls heartburn.

On paper, winning back the Senate should be a cakewalk for the GOP this year: The party is defending only 11 relatively safe seats while the Democrats have to defend 23 seats, many of them in red or purple states, at a time when their presidential standard-bearer is struggling. And yet, thanks to ticket-splitters, Democratic Senate candidates are ahead in almost all of their races — sometimes polling dramatically better than President Joe Biden. “It’s important to remember that not all Trump voters are alike,” Macdonald said. “Some of them vote for Trump enthusiastically while wearing a hat, but others vote reluctantly while holding their nose.”

Now, with Biden stepping aside and Vice President Harris taking the mantle as the likely nominee, Democrats will find out whether the president’s struggle with voters this year was something unique to him and his frailty. Polling has been a bit uneven since Biden’s withdrawal on Sunday, but several surveys seem to suggest that the vice president has energized Democrats and pulled back some voters who had preferred a third-party choice rather than Biden. Democrats believe their message and their campaigns were properly structured, but that their messenger had his own unique flaws. Democrats are betting that Harris, 59, can re-energize a liberal coalition that has delivered popular-vote victories in four straight presidential elections and replicate their defeat of Trump four years ago. “I have never seen such a quick reversal of an emotional state. The anti-Trump coalition was just waiting to be reactivated. We are back,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) said after Harris and allies raised $250 million in two days. Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Pa.), an early Biden endorser in 2020, cited the June 27 debate as “the pivot point” from which Democrats could not escape questions about the president’s ability to serve another four years. “We as Democrats have an enormous record to run on,” Houlahan said in an interview, saying those accomplishments got drowned out by voter perceptions of the 81-year-old incumbent’s ability to perform the job. “We were constantly talking about the debate,” she added. With Harris at the top of the ticket, Democrats hope the gloomy issue of Biden’s age will fade or even shift onto the backs of GOP candidates supporting the 78-year-old Trump, with his own questions about fitness to serve into 2029. “We can talk about the future,” Schatz said, accusing Republicans of a social policy agenda that would take America back to “the late 1950s.” Republicans dismiss the argument that Biden was the only thing dragging down Democrats as overly hyped. They argue that overlooks how poorly voters viewed Biden’s handling of key issues such as inflation and the border for several years before his debate debacle last month.

“Obviously, Biden’s age and everything were pulling down his support, but the policies that he embraced are the same policies that Harris has embraced,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) told reporters on Tuesday. Cornyn, who is running to be Senate Republican leader next year, said he would welcome a campaign that was less of a “personality race” and focused more on those policy issues. Yet for almost a year, GOP challengers have pounded away at Democratic candidates in those same battleground states on those issues, with only marginal impact so far. In Pennsylvania, both Casey and McCormick have been airing television ads steadily since the early spring. Their campaigns spent a combined $18 million in the second quarter, with Casey holding an almost 2-to-1 edge, but outside super PACs are also flooding the airwaves. After McCormick won his primary in late April, the race had closed to a narrow 46-41 lead for the Democratic incumbent, according to the Times-Sienna poll. That grew to Casey receiving 50 percent against McCormick’s 39 percent in their poll released last week. Other, less reliable polls showed Casey with leads in a similar range after Biden’s debate flop. Meanwhile, Pennsylvanians have remained sour on Biden almost the entire year, favoring Trump 47 to 44 percent in the early May poll and almost identically 48 to 44 percent after the debate.

It was the 2022 midterms, and I was gearing up for a Republican House and Senate. Everything in front of me had me anticipating massive gains for the Party. I, along with many, learned a very hard lesson when the dust settled and the election results were finalized. Nothing is in the bag. Nothing is guaranteed. Polls aren't always even close to accurate, and moreover, your own bias will paint you a picture of the landscape with or without your consent. You will rest easy in the comfort of a falsehood you really believe is the truth. Reality is oftentimes not what you think it is. This is why no one should rest easy about November. As my colleague Levon Satamian reported, Ted Cruz gave a very good warning to Republicans after experiencing the mood at the RNC: Republicans, I worry, vastly underestimate Kamala Harris. They don’t think very highly of her. They don’t think she’s terribly bright. When you or I bring up Kamala Harris’ name in Republican circles, people laugh. It’s immediately a punchline. I think people are underestimating what billions of dollars of free media of the entire corrupt corporate media complex, pitching her as a combination of Mother Teresa, Oprah and Gandhi. Now, I still think Trump wins in November. But this is not a layup. It is not given. And what’s coming in front of us look, if you’re a Democrat, what makes you nervous is chaos, and this much chaos 100 days out is scary. But you know what? Even more scary is going into an election where you’re almost certain to lose, which is where Biden was. If you look at the front page of RedState right now, you'll see a ton of articles that spell disaster for the Democrat Party. Even as I speak, there are tweets on X that indicate a massive disadvantage for the DNC's new emergency candidate, Kamala Harris.

I'm in agreement with Cruz that Trump will still likely win this. There's a stellar amount of momentum for the Trump campaign thanks to a fantastic debate appearance and an assassination attempt. While nothing is written in stone, I don't count out dark miracles. As Cruz said, the power of the Democrat-loyal media complex is undeniable. The Democrats might be tripping over their own feet, but the media can spin it to make it look like dancing and low-info voters will believe them. But while the Harris campaign is fighting a very steep uphill battle, the down ballot races are still a bit more of a toss-up. They were a bit on the iffy side for Democrats with Biden in charge, but with Harris there can be new energy infused into them. Now, Democrats can throw Biden under every bus they can find and pass the failures of the Democrat Party off on him while signaling that Harris is a new leader for a new day. As the New York Post wrote on Monday, Democrats aren't as focused on Harris as they are all the other elections around the country: By rallying around Kamala Harris, Democrats are setting themselves up for a replay of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 defeat — and they’re OK with that. As humiliating as Clinton’s loss to Trump was, she didn’t drag down congressional Democrats, who gained six seats in the House and two in the Senate that year.

Down-ballot Democrats are seeing major fundraising hauls, the party’s fundraisers said. As of Monday morning, Kamala Harris’ nascent campaign said it had raised just shy of $50 million in the wake of President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential race and endorse the vice president. Total online fundraising on ActBlue hit $70 million, suggesting in the ballpark of $20 million was raised for down-ballot Democrats and other groups. (For comparison, ActBlue processed roughly $7 million total donations on Saturday, the day before Biden dropped out.) The flood of money — which continued Monday — shows down-ballot races cashing in on the tectonic shift in Democratic politics. And it comes after weeks of turmoil in which Democrats worried that Biden was barreling toward a major loss in November that could also drag down their attempts to hold the Senate and win the House. Democratic fundraisers interviewed by POLITICO said the fundraising hauls underscored a widespread feeling that Democrats’ fates may now finally be shifting. "We're seeing House, Senate campaigns and PACs having some of their best fundraising days of the cycle," said Kenneth Pennington, a partner at the Democratic fundraising firm Middle Seat. “The decision by the president is a spark for a lot of grassroots donors … you're just seeing people respond to that with, kind of, renewed hope and optimism.”

A spokesperson for MoveOn, the progressive advocacy group, said it was the strongest fundraising day since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022. Activist David Hogg said his organization, Leaders We Deserve, raised more than $50,000 on Sunday, its best day of the quarter so-far in small-dollar fundraising and among the group's best days of small-dollar fundraising since its launch last year. Mike Nellis, founder of the Democratic digital firm Authentic, said that beyond a select few races, Democratic candidates have been struggling with fundraising amid “a low-energy election.” But his firm’s major, active clients — in House and Senate races — saw an 800 percent increase on average in their daily online donations in the immediate aftermath of the news of Biden’s decision to drop out of the race. He compared the success of the moment to fundraising in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 and former Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death in 2020. “This trickled down to everybody, which I think signals a wave of Democratic enthusiasm,” said Nellis, who has served as a Harris adviser, including in her 2020 campaign. “I think Republicans are about to have to deal with a very energized blue wave that’s coming at them hard. And we’ve been taking it on the chin for the last three weeks, and I think Democrats are sick and tired.”

House Democrats’ campaign arm raised nearly $1 million online in the first 24 hours after President Joe Biden announced he would not seek reelection — the group's single best online fundraising day of the cycle. Between 3 p.m. and midnight, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee raised more than $1,300 per minute, according to numbers the committee shared first with POLITICO. The average donation was $50, more than double its usual average. The surge of cash is a comforting signal to Democrats that Vice President Kamala Harris could inject their ticket with the kind of enthusiasm that was lacking under Biden. Harris has seen a groundswell of donations of her own in the last day, and the DCCC numbers suggest that is trickling down-ballot as well. “The enthusiasm from grassroots donors to elect a Democratic House Majority is at an all-time high," said Courtney Rice, a DCCC spokeswoman.

Vulnerable House Democrats are circling the wagons around Vice President Harris, arguing that their new probable presidential nominee will only increase excitement for Democrats up and down the ballot as they work to recapture the lower chamber in November. The majority of frontliners — a title given to vulnerable lawmakers running in the most competitive races this cycle — have thrown their support behind Harris, just one day after President Biden withdrew from the 2024 race and endorsed his No. 2. Asked on Monday if he is happier running with Harris at the top of the ticket rather than Biden, Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio), a frontliner who has endorsed the vice president, told The Hill: “Yes.” “One is, she’ll do the job well. Two, she will energize an entire group of voters who have been frustrated for a long time,” Landsman added when pressed on his endorsement of Harris. “Been frustrated and feeling like they’re not part of this. And some of those folks are Democrats, some of those folks are young people, some of them are independents, some of them will be moderate Republicans.” There are, to be sure, some outliers. A handful of frontliners have stopped short of endorsing Harris’s nascent bid, with some brushing aside questions when pressed by The Hill. But the overwhelming support from the most vulnerable Democrats is a reassuring sign for Harris’s nascent campaign, which she is looking to turbocharge in the lead-up to next month’s convention in Chicago.

Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), a frontliner who heads the Congressional Black Caucus, rejected having any concerns about Harris being a drag on down-ballot races — ”absolutely not” — citing the excitement among Democrats with their new nominee. “She’s already showing that there’s energy and excitement that’s gonna help the entire up and down the ballot,” he said. Biden sent shockwaves through the political universe Sunday afternoon when — after weeks of speculation following his lackluster debate performance — he announced that he would withdraw from the 2024 race and endorsed Harris as the new nominee, significantly shaking up the race just over 100 days out from Election Day. The news came after a large number of House Democrats — including many frontliners, like Landsman — called on Biden to step aside from the ticket, raising concerns about Biden’s ability to beat Trump in November. The majority of this cycle’s 31 frontliners have backed Harris as the new nominee, lauding her as a strong candidate to serve as a contrast to Trump. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) raked in nearly $1 million in the first 24 hours after Biden’s decision, which was the campaign arm’s best day in its history, the group announced on Monday. Harris’s campaign, meanwhile, pulled in $81 million in its first 24 hours of existence.“People are excited about her candidacy,” said Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), who served as battleground leadership representative in the House Democratic Caucus. “All of the metrics between the fundraising and the engagement. I mean, I have received incoming saying ‘how do I get a ticket to the convention?’” “I think she’s an extraordinary person and people see that,” she added. “I think she will continue to generate a lot of enthusiasm which has, like obvious positive impact down-ballot.” Still, however, some vulnerable Democrats are not yet taking the plunge, stopping short of backing Harris in the immediate aftermath of Biden’s decision to pass the torch. Reps. Don Davis (D-N.C.), Jared Golden (D-Maine), Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas), Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), Josh Harder (D-Calif.) and Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) — all frontliners — have not thrown their support behind Harris, according to a tracker kept by The New York Times, omissions that are raising some eyebrows. Peltola told The Hill on Monday that she does not endorse in races — “I as a rule do not believe in endorsements” — and refused to say if she thinks Harris is a strong person to be on the Democratic ticket, pointing to the diverse nature of Alaska. “Alaska is 63 percent independent, non-partisan, undeclared. So I am not a super active person within the Democratic Party,” she said. Pressed on if she supports Harris, Peltola responded “as a human being I do support her, I do not make any endorsements though politically,” before hurrying away from reporters. Harder, meanwhile, refused to answer questions about his feelings regarding Harris, telling The Hill it was “close to naptime” for his children, whom he was walking with, and deferring to his office.

Congressional Democrats are cautiously coming to one conclusion: We’re no longer doomed. President Joe Biden’s exit from the presidential race breathed new life in the fight for control of Congress, and the party’s candidates said they feel like they once again have a real chance at winning. Within 24 hours, many of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents coalesced behind Vice President Kamala Harris as the nominee, eager to project unity after weeks of chaos. Almost no one is suddenly confident that Harris will easily beat Trump and boost their chances at flipping the House (challenging) or keeping the Senate (even harder). But it’s a welcome relief from the last three weeks of panic over Biden’s vulnerabilities. And they’re moving quickly to figure out how best to deploy Harris in their own races, with Democrats starting to poll head-to-head matchups between her and Trump and at least one PAC starting to test pro-Harris messages, according to three people familiar with the plans. “It’s definitely new energy,” said Rep. Ann McLane Kuster (D-N.H.), the chair of the moderate New Democrat Coalition. Kuster, who has endorsed Harris and is retiring from Congress at the end of this term, spent weeks poring over polling data in dozens of her vulnerable members’ districts. And it was bleak. “It was tough,” she said. “I think we can turn that around.” Biden’s disastrous debate performance last month, and his rapidly flagging poll numbers, had laid bare a dire situation for down-ballot candidates: To win, they would need to significantly outrun the unpopular president and figure out how to appropriately distance themselves from him. Privately, some battleground Democrats are still unsure if Harris can win their district, especially in existing Trump turf. Yet the party’s base appears to be enthusiastic for perhaps the first time in the 2024 campaign — and there are signs it’s not just for the presidential race. The Senate Democratic campaign arm had back-to back million-dollar online fundraising days on July 21 (when Biden dropped out) and the day after, according to an aide from the committee. It was the group’s best two online fundraising days of the cycle. Similarly, in the 24 hours after Biden’s exit in their best day of the cycle. Still, the party’s ability to win down-ballot remains tenuous. With so much still uncertain, they say it’s too early to tell whether Harris will put enough districts back in play for Democrats to have a chance of controlling at least one chamber of Congress. Still, they are relieved to be free from Biden’s baggage — particularly questions about his age and mental acuity — and allowed to run their own races at home. It’s not even necessarily about Harris boosting them — it’s about Biden not dragging them down.

The memo says, "Despite a volatile month of ever-evolving political news, House Democrats remain well-positioned to win back the majority this fall," citing what the committee calls a "continued fundraising advantage." The committee's report says the party's top challengers and frontline incumbents hold an average fundraising advantage of approximately $400,000 in some of the most competitive Congressional districts nationwide in recent months. The memo says the most recent finalized quarterly fundraising totals show Democratic candidates in some of the most contentious races raised an average of $1 million during the most recent three-month stretch for which the party's campaign reports were made available. Several House Democrats facing the stiffest re-election challenges were among the first wave of Democrats to call for Mr. Biden to withdraw from the 2024 election, including Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN), Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY) and Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-MI). Though it doesn't mention the president by name or reference his decision to bow out of the race, the DCCC memo reviewed by CBS News argues the party is cultivating diverse viewpoints among its candidates reflected in an "independent" streak. The memo says, "The message hasn't changed." It says, "Democrats run common sense, independent-minded candidates who reflect the diversity of our nation and are focused on kitchen table issues. For House Democrats, differing viewpoints and candid conversations are a welcome way to push towards solutions." House Democrats have been bullish on their prospects of re-taking the majority in November through flipping a handful of battleground districts from red-to-blue, including multiple districts in suburban New York City and California. Campaign strategists and House incumbents questioned whether Mr. Biden's June debate performance and faltering national poll numbers were damaging the party's House campaign efforts.

The U.S. House of Representatives will be up for grabs in the 2024 election due to a number of factors, including two recent court rulings. Often overshadowed by the quadrennial presidential election, the House races will see each of the chamber’s 435 seats contested. However, due to gerrymandering and other political considerations, only a few of those races will be contentious. Republicans currently control the House, winning by a razor-thin margin after a lackluster showing for the party in the 2022 midterms. To control the chamber, Democrats would have to flip a total of five GOP-held House seats while retaining all of the ones they currently hold, or win by a similar mathematical formula (like winning six seats while only losing one, etc.).

Several factors indicate that it’s highly possible Democrats could be successful in that regard. For starters, former President Donald Trump is running for president again next year. As the likely GOP nominee, Trump’s presence on the ballot will likely galvanize a number of eligible voters to vote against him, as many did in the 2020 election who later sat out the midterms last year. Another factor that could motivate more people to vote than did last fall is the issue of abortion rights. Six ballot measures were considered in as many states in 2022 regarding abortion rights, with voters taking a decisively pro-abortion stance, approving measures protecting the right in California, Michigan and Vermont and rejecting anti-abortion measures in Kentucky, Kansas and Montana. Next year, at least two other states — New York and Maryland — will have an abortion rights vote. Four other states are also poised to put the issue of abortion on the ballot, likely producing a higher turnout than usual, as the vast majority of voters see abortion as a critical issue since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned federal abortion protections last year. Since then, the issue of abortion has drawn higher turnout from Democratic voters than from Republican voters, and could tip the balance in the midterms for Democrats

Polls taken before and after the June 27 debate paint a consistent picture: Democratic Senate candidates in key states are faring well and broadly leading GOP rivals, while Biden is in a dead heat with Trump or trailing him with the same set of voters. In some more recent polls, Biden has been underperforming other Democrats by 5 points to double digits.

In Michigan, a recent EPIC-MRA poll found Biden trailing Trump by 3 points, while Slotkin led Republican Senate front-runner and former congressman Mike Rogers by 2 points — both within the margin of error.

Democratic congressional candidates stockpiled serious campaign cash over the last three months, new fundraising reports show, as the party contends with an increasingly well-funded GOP and looming questions about President Joe Biden’s strength at the top of the ticket.

The financial landscape is positive for Democrats broadly — all but one of their leading candidates in the 10 most competitive Senate races outraised their likely Republican opponents, as did virtually every leading Democratic House candidate in seats rated as “toss ups” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.

[(Daniela, covers campaigns for Roll Call.) “FEC reports show Democrats with tough races ahead building cash”, Roll Call, 7-16- 2024, https://rollcall.com/2024/07/16/fec-reports-show-democrats-with-tough-races-ahead-building-cash/]//LR

Democratic candidates for Senate, for the most part, maintained a fundraising advantage over their Republican opponents that continues to be a bright spot as they defend seats in Republican-leaning and swing states this year. Montana Sen. Jon Tester, one of the most vulnerable Democrats on the ballot given his state’s Republican lean, raised $10.6 million in the second quarter and had $10.9 million on hand at the end of June. His Republican opponent, Tim Sheehy, raised $5.3 million, including a $1 million personal loan, and had $3.2 million on hand. Inside Elections rates the race as a Toss-up. Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, also in a race rated Toss-up by Inside Elections, raised $12.8 million in the second quarter and had $10.7 million on hand. Bernie Moreno, his Republican challenger, raised $4.4 million and had $4.5 million on hand. Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen, a Democrat whose race is rated Tilt Democratic, raised $7.6 million and had $9.5 million on hand, while Republican Sam Brown raised $4.1 million and had $3.1 million on hand at the end of the quarter. In Arizona and Michigan, both swing states with open Senate seats, the likely Democratic nominees, Reps. Ruben Gallego and Elissa Slotkin, respectively, have major cash advantages to their Republican opponents. In Arizona, Gallego had $9.2 million on hand, while Kari Lake, the likely Republican nominee, had $2.8 million. In Michigan, Slotkin, who is running in a contested Democratic primary in August, had $9.6 million on hand. Former Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republicans’ favored candidate, had $2.5 million on hand, while Sandy Pensler, a businessman self-funding his campaign, had $1.1 million on hand after loaning his campaign $1.9 million last quarter. In Maryland, Democrat Angela Alsobrooks raised $5.3 million while Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan raised $5.1 million during the quarter. Alsobrooks had $3.6 million on hand at the end of June to Hogan’s $2.7 million. In some cases, Republican candidates kept pace with their Democratic opponents with help from their personal fortunes. Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey slightly outraised his Republican challenger, Dave McCormick. Casey raised $13.7 million in the first quarter, while McCormick raised $12 million, including a $3.1 million personal loan. Casey had $8.4 million on hand to McCormick’s $8 million. In Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin raised $7.5 million in the second quarter, while Republican Eric Hovde raised $7.3 million, including a $5 million loan. Still, Baldwin had more cash in the bank. She had $7.3 million as of June 30 to Hovde’s $5.4 million.

Democratic candidates for the Senate in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin lead their Republican rivals and are running well ahead of President Biden in key states where he continues to struggle, according to polls The battleground surveys of registered voters indicate that the president’s difficulties against former President Donald J. Trump may not be enough to sink other Democrats, especially Senate incumbents who are facing less-well-known Republicans. Ticket-splitters are not abundant — about 10 percent of Trump voters back the Democratic candidate for Senate in the four states, while about 5 percent of Biden supporters back the Republican. But those voters are enough to give Democrats a chance at holding the Senate, where they currently hold a one-seat majority. To maintain control, the Democrats would have to sweep every competitive Senate seat and win the White House. In Pennsylvania, Senator Bob Casey, a Democrat, has the support of 46 percent of voters, against the 41 percent who say they back his Republican challenger, the wealthy finance executive David McCormick, although Mr. Trump holds a slender advantage in a head-to-head race with Mr. Biden, 47 percent to 44 percent. In Wisconsin, the Democratic incumbent, Senator Tammy Baldwin, holds a wider, 49-percent-to-40 percent lead over the Republican banker Eric Hovde. Mr. Biden is up slightly against Mr. Trump, 47 percent to 45 percent. In Nevada, where Mr. Biden is struggling the most, Senator Jacky Rosen, a Democrat, narrowly leads her Republican challenger, Sam Brown, a wounded combat veteran, 40 percent to 38 percent, with 23 percent of registered voters undecided. In Arizona, the one battleground state polled with an open Senate seat, Representative Ruben Gallego, a Phoenix-area Democrat, leads Kari Lake, the Republican former news anchor who is closely allied with Mr. Trump, 45 percent to 41 percent, with 14 percent undecided. Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden in Arizona, 49 percent to 42 percent. The contrasting results underscore the power of incumbency, and how it appears to be nullified in the case of a former president challenging a sitting president. Voter after voter expressed comfort with the sitting Senate Democrat, and an almost complete lack of knowledge about the Republican challengers.