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[Mike, Jim, Axios, “Behind the Curtain: 6% of six states”, ]

The titanic Biden-Trump election likely will be decided by roughly 6% of voters in just six states, top strategists in both parties tell us.

[US Chamber of Commerce, 7/21/22, “New National Poll: Voters Oppose Proposed Antitrust Regulations for Technology Companies”, ]

Washington, D.C. — The U.S. Chamber of Commerce today released a new national poll conducted by AXIS Research. The poll found that 70% of voters oppose Congressional proposals to add new antitrust regulations for technology companies, and a majority of voters are more likely to oppose candidates who support such regulations.

[Cynthia, PhRMA, 7/14/21, “New polling shows Americans are sounding the alarm on the TRIPS IP waiver”, ]

Last week, the Biden administration announced support for a waiver of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) Agreement, which could lead to the removal of intellectual property protections for manufacturers of COVID-19 vaccines and treatments – a move some have suggested will speed global access in countries devastated by recent surges.

[The Bayh-Dole Coalition is a diverse group of innovation-oriented organizations and individuals committed to celebrating and protecting the Bayh-Dole Act, as well as informing policymakers and the public of its many benefits, “Voters Strongly Oppose Weakening Patents, New Poll Shows”, https://bayhdolecoalition.org/voters-strongly-oppose-weakening-patents-new-poll-shows/]

WASHINGTON, D.C. (January 17, 2024) — The Biden administration may soon endorse a proposal before the World Trade Organization (WTO) that would suspend patent protections on Covid-19 treatments and tests and, in doing so, thwart existing WTO standards. This move would be enormously unpopular with American voters, according to a new poll released today by the Bayh-Dole Coalition.

WASHINGTON, Jan. 17, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The Biden administration may soon endorse a proposal before the World Trade Organization (WTO) that would suspend patent protections on Covid-19 treatments and tests and, in doing so, thwart existing WTO standards. This move would be enormously unpopular with American voters, according to a new poll released today by the Bayh-Dole Coalition. Seven in ten voters believe that it is important for the Biden administration to preserve WTO standards for protecting IP. And 77% are at least slightly concerned that the pending proposal would stifle medical research and kill American manufacturing jobs. "This poll clearly demonstrates that voters value intellectual property protections and oppose giving away U.S. intellectual property, especially to competitors like China," said Joseph P. Allen, Executive Director of the Bayh-Dole Coalition. Opposition to this waiver is bipartisan, with supermajorities of both Republicans and Democrats preferring political candidates who prioritize protecting American inventors' IP rights.

Most Americans want the Biden administration to protect intellectual property rights at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and express concerns about waiving those rights, finds a new poll commissioned by the Bayh-Dole Coalition. Why it matters: In 2022, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) agreed to a waiver of WTO IP protection for COVID vaccines. Now, USTR is considering an extension of the waiver to include COVID diagnostics and therapeutics. The key finding: 7 in 10 respondents said it’s important for the Biden administration to preserve WTO IP protections, and most said it’s very important, finds a Morning Consult poll of 2,202 U.S. adults conducted Dec. 22-24. China is a concern: 68% said U.S. adversaries like China should not be able to replicate American-made technologies without permission from the inventors—with only 11% disagreeing and 21% saying they don’t know. Vote for IP protection: 66% would be inclined to vote for a candidate who prioritizes stronger IP rights, while 11% said they prefer a candidate who weakens IP rights.

[Grover, 6/8/22, The Hill, “Biden’s push to undermine IP rights harms the US and helps Communist China”, ]

The Biden administration is partnering with global organizations and foreign countries on an agreement that will undermine the intellectual property (IP) of American businesses. This will both damage American workers and businesses and will be a giveaway to geopolitical rivals like Communist China and Russia.

There is, so far at least, little fear that Democrats are spreading themselves too thin by eschewing the traditional practice of focusing on a handful of domestic policy issues in the first two years of an administration.

“Political momentum and political capital is like a muscle. The more you exercise it, the more of it you have. It is not like a finite resource that you can run out of if you spend too much of it. What happens is that if we do a lot of positive things, then we’ve got more political clout to do even more positive things,” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) said.

The United States Intellectual Property Alliance (USIPA) recently published the results of its US Intellectual Property Awareness & Attitudes Survey. Among its findings, the survey results revealed that 70% of Americans are unable to distinguish between mechanisms – patents, trademarks, copyrights, and trade secrets – for protecting Intellectual Property (IP).

[Philip, “Polling won’t tell you who will win in November, but it’s not meant to”, ]

President Biden’s reelection campaign is not going particularly smoothly, not that political campaigns ever really do. But his is particularly rough, with critics and allies suggesting that he might or will step aside to improve his party’s chances for success. Nervous Democrats look at polls and see former president Donald Trump running even or leading, and they imagine some unidentified savior who might quickly and permanently turn that around.

[Justin, “Who will win the 2024 presidential election?”, ]

The other X-factor in the race is the aforementioned Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Although he entered the race as a Democrat, Kennedy is now running as an independent and polls show that he could potentially play the role of a third party spoiler. This is something that Kennedy himself has rejected, though some in the White House reportedly believe Kennedy "poses a real threat to President Joe Biden's reelection chances," Forbes said. However, while most analysts believe RFK Jr.'s candidacy was most likely to be a problem for Biden, polling shows that it may be Trump who gets the short end of the stick; a recent NBC News poll found that Kennedy would likely siphon more voters away from Trump than Biden, as the aforementioned RMG and New York Times polls that also showed Kennedy pulling more from Trump voters. So while the White House and Democrats are worried about Kennedy, it appears the Trump team may be equally worried, as the former president "may regret RFK Jr.'s campaign," Business Insider said. Notably, in NBC's poll that had Biden winning, the president's margin of victory shrinks to 39% for Biden over 37% for Trump, while Kennedy pulls in 13%, meaning the chance for RFK Jr. to play spoiler is still very much alive. Other candidates also remain in the race, including Cornel West, Marianne Williamson and Jill Stein, but are unlikely to generate a challenge to either Biden or Trump.

[Domenico, “Trump verdict would likely move only a small number of votes, poll finds”, ]

Most people say the outcome of former President Donald Trump’s hush-money trial in New York will not have an impact on their vote in the 2024 presidential election, but it could have an effect on some key groups, according to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll. The full survey results will be released Thursday morning.

[Courtney, Carol E., “Are Russia and North Korea planning an 'October surprise' that aids Trump?”, ]

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration is increasingly concerned that the intensifying military alliance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could vastly expand Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities and increase tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, six senior U.S. officials told NBC News.

[Elena, ELI STOKOLS and LISA KASHINSKY, “Foreign policy becomes a liability for Biden’s campaign as he heads to France”, ]

President Joe Biden vowed during his 2020 campaign to restore America’s alliances and leadership abroad.

Dave Nagle, March 24 2024, “If Biden loses, it will be because Democrats defeated him,” Iowa Capital Dispatch, https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2024/03/24/if-biden-loses-it-will-be-because-democrats-defeated-him/

A second limitation on the president’s chances is the realistic observation that many on the far left are reluctant to support him. Ironically, Trump faces the same erosion of support from his moderate GOP base. It almost seems the election will be decided by attrition. Our commander-in-chief may well gain former Trump voters, but at the same time lose leftist Dems at the same or higher rate. I am inclined to believe that more Republican moderates will vote for Biden, if only as the lesser of two evils. Purist Democrats, who expect perfection from their elected leaders, could well vote simply “none of the above.”

[Jessica, “What the ‘uncommitted’ vote says about Biden’s reelection”, ]

With nearly every ballot cast in the Democratic presidential primary, the message for Joe Biden is clear: A small but repeated share of the party’s base is not happy with him.

[Justin, “Who will win the 2024 presidential election?”, ]

Biden and Trump traded slight polling leads throughout the primary season. When it comes to actual figures, though, Trump has carried most of the weight in the majority of polls taken this year — a New York Times poll from May 13 of 1,000 Americans showed the former president leading Biden in five of six key battleground states. Biden led Trump only in Wisconsin with a margin of 47% to 45%. While the accuracy of this poll has been questioned, the Trump lead appears to be in line with a May 14 YouGov/Economist poll of 1,586 voters that had Trump leading 42% to 41% and a May 12 Morning Consult poll of 10,243 voters that had him leading 44% to 43%.

[Scott,, Zachary Donini, Ryan Gest, Scott Tranter is the director of data science at Decision Desk HQ, where Ryan Gest is a data science and digital content fellow and Zachary Donnini is a data science fellow. The Hill, “GOP trifecta? Introducing the Decision Desk HQ 2024 Election Forecast Model”, ]

Welcome to Decision Desk HQ’s 2024 Election Forecast Model, a powerful tool for in-depth analysis and predictions for the upcoming presidential, Senate and House races.

Donald J. Trump leads President Biden in five crucial battleground states, a new set of polls shows, as a yearning for change and discontent over the economy and the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters threaten to unravel the president’s Democratic coalition.

The surveys by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer found that Mr. Trump was ahead among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup against Mr. Biden in five of six key states: Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden led among registered voters in only one battleground state, Wisconsin.

Former President Donald Trump has edged a slim lead over President Joe Biden in a presidential election forecast.

The presumptive Republican presidential nominee is set to face incumbent Biden in November, and polls have so far shown that the results of the 2020 White House rematch will be tight, with the pair statistically tied or holding only marginal leads in a number of surveys.