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Given postwar presidents’ extensive lobbying investments, the rest of the chapter examines their impact on key roll-call votes. With simultaneous testing of the early game factors that affect which bills experience key votes alongside the endgame factors that determine the winner, the results affirm that presidents’ involvement does dramatically increase their chances of prevailing in key votes. However, the essence of this influence looks different than is often assumed. Rather than turning on their influence in the legislative endgame, presidents’ success in key votes is rooted primarily in the earlygame. Again, this does not mean that the legislative endgame is unimportant or that presidents’ vote-centered lobbying is irrelevant but rather underscores the fact that its impact typically works indirectly by affecting the bargaining that transpires before bills even reach the floor. This same pattern holds true in both chambers

Jacob Magid is The Times of Israel's US bureau chief, “US envoy predicts Netanyahu won’t advance entire overhaul due to ‘dramatic’ reaction,” June 27, 2023 dmr

US Ambassador Tom Nides said Tuesday that he does not believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government will unilaterally advance the entirety of its legislative package to overhaul the judiciary. “I do not believe we’re going to wake up and they’re going to do all of this legislation unilaterally… My hope is that they will not do everything unilaterally because I think the reaction here would be quite dramatic,” Nides said during a virtual event organized by the Jewish Democratic Council of America, referencing the magnitude of anti-overhaul protests of recent months. Netanyahu’s coalition began unilaterally advancing a relatively small part of the overhaul package this week in legislation to restrict judicial review, but some critics fear that the government is merely seeking to break up its advancement of the plan, rather than all of it at once, recognizing that the blowback from the latter strategy would be much more fierce. Nides went on to maintain that the overhaul “was never [Netanyahu’s] major objective [when he became] prime minister. His coalition partners have a different objective,” but the premier is more interested in combating Iran and securing a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. Commenting on the protest movement against the overhaul, Nides said it demonstrates that “democracy is alive and well in Israel,” and claimed that no one has been arrested and that there’s been no property damage. Just hours earlier though, six protesters were arrested for burning tires outside Justice Minister Yariv Levin’s Modiin home. Others have been arrested for blocking roads and other forms of public disturbances throughout the ongoing 26-week protest. US President Joe Biden’s administration has warned Israel against advancing the controversial plan unveiled in early January, instead urging Jerusalem to only adopt judicial reforms that have widespread support. Biden himself said in late March that Netanyahu would not be getting an invite to the White House in the “near term,” amid Washington’s displeasure with the radical nature of the proposals initially put forward by Levin. Nides was asked about the lack of a White House invitation and insisted that one would come eventually, while avoiding getting into specifics and pointing out that Netanyahu has already been in the Oval Office more than just about every other foreign leader. Asked about the administration’s efforts to broker a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, Nides said Biden has directed his most senior advisers to try and “to see if there is an opportunity” to reach a deal and has “been willing to spend some political capital” in the process. Nides acknowledged that it was a complicated task but said it was worth trying, as it would benefit all countries involved and would amount to Israel making peace with “most of the Muslim world.” The ambassador went on to take pride in a series of measures he helped advance to improve Palestinian livelihood — expanding the operating hours of at the Allenby Crossing between the West Bank and Jordan, expanding 4G cellular access for Palestinians, boosting funding for the East Jerusalem Hospital Network, and expanding fuel and electricity access in the West Bank and Gaza. Most of those initiatives have yet to be completed, but Nides has been working to ensure that they get across the finish line in the coming months. The envoy insisted that he and the administration still support a two-state solution but argued that conditions are not ripe for one to come to fruition and that steps taken to improve Palestinian livelihood should be taken in the meantime. Nides is set to step down from his post on July 12, and current deputy ambassador Stephanie Hallett will serve as the interim head of mission. While the White House has put together an initial list of potential nominees to replace Nides — whose tenure will only have been 19 months long — an announcement on a nominee for his replacement is not expected in the near future, according to a US official familiar with the matter.

Anthony Chimente earned a Ph.D. from Durham University in Middle East Politics with a focus on civil-military relations in fragmented states. His main interests include military, security, and international affairs in the region. Dr. Chimente spent five months as a visiting associate lecturer in comparative politics at Northumbria University. He is currently an independent researcher and advisor with Gulf State Analytics, a geopolitical consultancy based in Washington, D.C. “Tentative Steps Toward a New Saudi-Israeli Relationship,” June 25, 2023 https://www.fairobserver.com/politics/arab-world/tentative-steps-toward-a-new-saudi-israeli-relationship/

On May 7th, a US delegation led by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan traveled to Saudi Arabia for a meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. This meeting was held to discuss prospects for normalization of relations with Israel in light of thawed relations between President Biden, MbS and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Motivations for Normalization Now Former US Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Robert Jordan assumed his duties in the immediate aftermath of 9/11. At the time, Jordan was directed to question the governor of Riyadh, Prince Salman, now King of Saudi Arabia, on how Saudi nationals constituted 15 of the 19 hijackers. Salman denied Saudi involvement and shifted blame to the Israelis, in what he considered a conspiracy to drive a wedge between the US and the kingdom. A meeting with the minister of interior, Prince Nayef, produced similar results. Both meetings illustrated that in the Saudi mind: everything wrong with the world in those days was the fault of Israel. Marking a sharp turn in Saudi opinion, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (commonly known as MbS) commented in 2022, “we don’t look at Israel as an enemy, we look to them as a potential ally, with many interests that we can pursue together.” Saudi businessman and Prince, Alwaleed bin Talal, also expressed how both countries are now intertwined and on the potential path for normalization; “for the first time, Saudi Arabian interests and Israel are almost parallel…It’s incredible.’ The crown prince calculates that the parallel interests that are driven by domestic projects and the economic, commercial, and financial benefits acquired through normalization will be beneficial for the kingdom. Tel Aviv is a natural ally for Saudi Arabia. It is a leader in environmental advances and the energy sector, which could be an aid in the Saudi project Vision 2030. The Saudis therefore acknowledge that a relationship with Israel is mutually beneficial and could aid in transforming their economy into a high-tech financial center. Israel’s economy is complementary to Saudi Arabia, not competitive with it like the energy-based economies of the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, whose own oil diversification and modernization strategies are very similar to Saudi Arabia’s. Normalization will also serve the wider goal of establishing a more integrated, regionally focused economy, while at the same time enhancing security. Tel Aviv can assist Riyadh in countering perceived internal terrorist security issues and the perceived Iranian threat. This can also foster closer security relations and enable a regional security complex to emerge that can rival the declining thirty-year-old US-dominated role. Politically, the Saudis also recognize the prospects of normalization as a substantial bargaining chip with any new presidential administration. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan suggested in a speech at a Washington think tank that negotiations towards normalization were underway, but declined to comment further. He said he did not want to “upset the efforts we are undertaking on this issue.” Tellingly, Sullivan stressed that “getting to full normalization is a declared national security interest of the United States. We have been clear about that.” The rumored appointment of former U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Shapiro, by Secretary of State Tony Blinken, as an envoy for the Abraham Accords also highlights the administrations ambitious desire to implement an Israeli-Saudi deal. Joe Biden’s Saudi Arabia Visit to Meet Mohammad bin Salman For President Biden, foreign policy and domestic politics motivate Washington’s drive towards normalization. A success could help to counter criticism of US diplomatic decline in the Middle East after the China-brokered peace deal between Saudi and Iran. The Biden administration calculates the prospect of Israeli normalization with Saudi Arabia might be enough to convince Netanyahu to abandon some of Israel’s more egregious policies towards the West Bank. The administration inherited the Abraham Accords and realized they are keen on broadening the circle of Arab Israeli normalization. The Israeli prime minister perceives Saudi Arabia as the paramount outreach to the Arab world and a cornerstone of the Abraham Accords. A normalization deal would cement Israeli standing in the Arab world and reap the benefits of bilateral relations with Saudi Arabia. Compromise is the Necessary Answer Concessions from both parties are necessary for normalization to materialize, but each one needs to be viewed individually, not just considered as a package. The major problem rests in the multilateral nature of the negotiations: Netanyahu’s right-wing government must be willing to make concessions concerning the Palestinians. In a phone call with the Israeli prime minister, MbS iterated the demands necessary for normalization. This included strengthening the Palestinian security apparatus at the expense of the Israeli Defense Forces in Judea and Samaria, while requesting Palestinian security forces assume control over al-Aqsa Mosque and the Church of the Holy Sepulcher, leaving the Western Wall under full Israeli control. The Biden Administration also established similar conditions to broker normalization. The White House stipulated the need for progression on the Palestinian issue regarding the restoration of peace talks with the Palestinian Authority. They also demanded Israel halt its judicial overhaul. An EU diplomat emphasized that the Americans are unsure what price Netanyahu is willing to pay for normalization on the substantive issues. This includes allowing Riyadh a civilian nuclear program and access to more advanced weapons systems similar to those sold to Tel Aviv. The diplomat also questioned whether Netanyahu is politically capable to initiate conductive outreach to Palestine and the Palestinian Authority, “in order to make it easier for Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman to risk open agreement with Israel.” Netanyahu is constrained based on the political configuration of his government ministers. Zionist Ministers of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Bezalel Smotrich wanted to be compensated for agreeing to the pause in judicial reform which the prime minister, at least temporarily, agreed to accept. Equally, both Saudi and American leadership are possibly discontented with the current Palestinian Authority leadership. This coupled with Netanyahu’s unwillingness to consider a two-state solution decreases the probability of a resolution to the Palestinian issue. The Saudis will probably be less supportive of Mahmoud Abbas than they have been in the past until there is new direction in the Palestinian government and the transition stabilizes. This is another area that will potentially allow Israel-Saudi relations to develop. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan consistently iterates the kingdom’s adherence to the Arab Peace Initiative which would lead to the creation of a Palestinian state on the basis of the two-state solution before normalization. However, MbS is more progressive regarding Palestine, holding a close circle of advisors known for sympathetic positions towards Israel. Saudi Arabia will be constrained on making peace with Israel, absent some major concessions for the Palestinians. The crown prince exercises tremendous power within the kingdom, but it is unclear how King Salman’s opinions shape the decision-making process in respect to Palestine. The crown prince must delicately balance normalizing relations with the issue of Palestine because unlike the UAE, turning their back to the Palestnians would hinder their goal of becoming a leader in the Arab World. The long-term ambitions of Saudi Arabia will likely accelerate normalization once MbS ascends the throne. However, there is a likelihood that the crown prince might wait until King Salman has passed, unless the US acquiesces to all his demands. Saudi Arabia has much more ambition regarding the nature of concessions desired in return for normalization with the Biden Administration. MbS is demanding American assistance to establish a civilian nuclear program, a formal alliance with the US to include security guarantees perhaps similar to those offered to the UAE and the status of procuring US weapons similar to NATO member states or major non-NATO allies. The sale of weapons, negotiation of a formal alliance/security agreement, and transfer of civilian nuclear technology will all require the active buy-in of Congress. But it won’t be easy. A Future Perspective on Saudi-Israeli Relations There is tentative evidence that relations are warming between Tel Aviv and Riyadh, given that the latter has permitted Israeli airplanes to overfly Saudi airspace. There have also been rumors of communication between their security services. Mossad and the Saudi General Intelligence Presidency have cooperated on addressing shared concerns, including on the Iranian nuclear program, Sunni extremism and other security issues. Additionally, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, accompanied by other Israeli officials and then-US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, reportedly had an exchange in Neom with the crown prince in late 2020. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan reportedly met with the Israeli Minister for Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, to further discuss Saudi Arabia. Importantly, the direct overflight permission granted to Israeli airlines and the development of special visas for Israeli businesspeople are significant steps with the prospects to further facilitate business transactions already taking place. Tel Aviv has been engrained both overtly and covertly in commercial and business activities with Saudi Arabia for years. Publicly, a number of high-profile Israeli businessmen attended the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh last year signaling Tel Aviv’s growing acceptance in Saudi Arabia. It was reported during the conference that Saudi Arabia and Israel signed two multi-million dollar deals concerning water and agricultural technology. MbS is focused on domestic issues where Israeli commercial and economic relations can assist in making Vision 2030 a reality. Israeli companies, investors and businessmen are playing a role in the Vision 2030 development agenda. Growing commercial ties can support the kingdom’s transformation from an oil-dependent to successfully diversified economy. Relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel are at a high point, perhaps the best they have ever been. Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen remains optimistic, reportedly stating that “he believes some kind of breakthrough in normalization talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia could well occur by the end of the year.” While it is clear that the Saudis are interested in normalization, the process will manifest incrementally at this moment in time and more precipitously once MbS becomes king.

Javad, directs the Persian Gulf Studies Group at the Center for Scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies in Iran. “Iran fears Israel-Arab security integration more than normalization,” June 21, 2023 dmr

So far, Saudi Arabia appears to remain ambivalent about joining the Abraham Accords, saying it will not normalize relations with Israel until there is progress toward a Palestinian state. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that normalization with Saudi Arabia is one of his main goals and the Biden administration has also made it clear that it considers Saudi-Israeli normalization a top priority.

Etgar Lefkovits, Jewish News Syndicate, “‘Washington thinks Israel-Saudi normalization possible’” June 21, 2023 dmr

The United States believes that a landmark diplomatic deal normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia is achievable, Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said on Tuesday. The remarks come as the Biden administration has embarked on an intense diplomatic push to reach such an agreement, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said could pave the way to ending the Arab-Israeli conflict. “There is an increased American involvement on the issue,” Hanegbi told JNS in an interview in Cyprus. “They believe that there is a possibility [to reach an agreement]. Hanegbi said that the Americans had not yet updated the Israeli government on the contours of such an agreement or what their vision is, and said that the situation remains murky. “There is more hidden than known,” he said, using the popular Hebrew saying. At the same time, Hanegbi said that “generally speaking” he was “optimistic” that it was possible to enlarge the circle of Arab countries that have normalized relations with Israel since the historic Abraham Accords were signed under President Trump in 2020. He noted, however, that in the case of Saudi Arabia the ball was not in Israel’s court. “It’s up to them,” Hanegbi said. “We want normalization and peace, but they have their own demands of the Americans.” Earlier this month, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia. In return for normalization with Israel, Riyadh reportedly wants American support for its civilian nuclear program, something Washington has long opposed, as well as a strong security pact with the United States. Israeli officials had previously said that intense efforts were underway to reach a normalization accord with the Saudis by the end of the year. Netanyahu has called a deal with the Saudis a “quantum leap” for regional peace, which would effectively end the Arab-Israeli conflict. Hanegbi said that the premier’s long-held vision for peace with the Arab world served as “a compass” for regional accords.

Javad, directs the Persian Gulf Studies Group at the Center for Scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies in Iran. “Iran fears Israel-Arab security integration more than normalization,” June 21, 2023 dmr

So far, Saudi Arabia appears to remain ambivalent about joining the Abraham Accords, saying it will not normalize relations with Israel until there is progress toward a Palestinian state. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that normalization with Saudi Arabia is one of his main goals and the Biden administration has also made it clear that it considers Saudi-Israeli normalization a top priority.

While Israel believes there is an opportunity to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, the window for reaching such an agreement could close soon, according to Israel’s Foreign Minister Eli Cohen. On Sunday Cohen said that there was a short “window of opportunity” for the Jewish state to enter into a U.S.-brokered normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. “We are very optimistic about the possibility of achieving such an agreement. This is an achievable agreement, after which more countries will follow,” said the Israeli foreign minister. He added that Saudis reportedly “were also interested in such an agreement,” which “will not be part” of the Abraham Accords and would include other countries as well. He did not specify which countries but said that talks on such an agreement were taking place, mainly via the U.S. Biden administration. In 2020, Israel signed the historic Abraham Accords peace agreements to normalize relations with four Arab nations: Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco and Sudan. The accords were brokered by then-U.S. President Donald Trump's administration. Cohen said that Israel estimates that “there is a window of opportunity until March 2024” for an agreement with Saudi Arabia, “after which the political system in the US will focus on the presidential elections” to take place in the fall of that year.

Alex, The Hill, “US plays nice despite Saudis flexing oil power,” June 12, 2023 dmr

The Biden administration is touting improved relations with Saudi Arabia since tensions spiked ahead of last year’s election, but there’s no sign of U.S. progress in convincing Riyadh to lower global gas prices. Following a surprise meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman this week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken reported warming relations since October, when Biden ultimately held back on a promise to impose “consequences” on Saudi Arabia after the Kingdom cut oil production. “We had a difference in views in October over the OPEC+ decision, but I think what we’re seeing is an increasing convergence in our partnership to advance in issues of mutual interest to Saudi Arabia, to the United States, and, for that matter, to countries in the region and beyond,” Blinken said in a Thursday interview with Arabic media in Riyadh. Oil revenues remain the bulk of Riyadh’s wealth as the 37-year-old crown prince, the de-facto ruler and heir apparent to the kingdom, seeks to remake Saudi Arabia as a center of business, culture and leisure in the Middle East. Riyadh’s refusal to find common ground with America’s energy interests — despite a high-profile visit by President Biden last year and billions in weapons sales — has compounded unease over the kingdom’s chilling human rights record. But even some of Biden’s allies in Congress are giving up on the potential for consequences. “I’m kind of giving up that we’re going to be able to dramatically change our assistance to Saudi Arabia and Egypt in a way that telegraphs to the world, and to the region, that we care in the way that we spend money on human rights,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), said in frustration during a budget hearing in late May. The Biden administration appears to have come to the strategic decision to compartmentalize areas where the U.S. and Saudis have shared interests. That includes making progress on ending Yemen’s devastating, eight-year civil war; supporting the kingdom’s communication with Iran to calm tensions in the region; setting up a breakthrough in ties with Israel; and using Riyadh’s help and influence to roll back an outbreak of war in Sudan. The U.S. is also intent on keeping Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Mohammed in its sphere of influence even as the kingdom balances its ties with Russia and China. Tellingly, the administration has treaded carefully around Saudi Arabia’s recent announcement that it intends to make deep cuts to its oil output for July. While gas prices peaked in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, those prices have gone down, giving the administration some domestic breathing room — for now. Gas prices are down from a year ago, at nearly $3.60, but have incrementally increased from last month, according to AAA. “You’ve heard us say this before: We believe that supply should meet demand. And we’ll continue to work with all producers and consumers to ensure that energy markets support economic growth and lower prices for American families,” State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel said Monday. The Saudis argue that decisions made in the OPEC+ group of top oil-producing nations are based strictly on economic factors and the global market. But in private, the crown prince reportedly threatened to blow up the relationship with the U.S. and attack the American economy in retaliation for Biden’s comments that there would be consequences for cutting oil production, the Washington Post reported on Friday, citing an intelligence analysis revealed in a wide-ranging leak of classified documents. High oil prices and increased oil production have contributed to a boom for the Saudi economy, the International Monetary Fund wrote in a recent summary of the country’s economic status. That has bankrolled increased investments in so-called “giga projects” — large-scale business ventures targeting entertainment, culture and technology the kingdom is pursuing to diversify its economy away from oil. This includes a surprise deal to merge the PGA Golf tour with the Saudi-funded LIV Golf tour and the crown prince’s determination to realize a $500 billion futuristic city in the desert. “It seems to me the Saudis have a genuine challenge figuring out how to manage the oil market,” said Jon Alterman, the director of the CSIS Middle East Program. “They want to get a sweet spot between revenues that help finance their investments internally — their economic transition, essentially — and not have prices so high that it makes alternative energy much more economical.” The Biden administration appears to be swallowing the Saudi’s reasoning on its oil decisions to avoid blowing up the relationship entirely, in particular as they see Riyadh make genuine progress in pushing forward a resolution in Yemen and after the Kingdom was indispensable in helping people flee Sudan when civil war broke out in the country’s capital in late April. Barbara Leaf, assistant secretary of State for the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, told a Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee that Saudi Arabia’s pursuit of their “socio-economic modernization project” is a primary driver of their push for easing tensions in the region, particularly with Iran and in efforts to pursue peace in Yemen. “The Saudis were really determined — since last fall — to use a bilateral channel that they had opened up to drive to an end to their engagement in the Yemen conflict, and indeed to drive to an end of the conflict itself. They did not want the Iranians to scupper that.” The Biden administration has taken pains to appeal to the Saudis and the crown prince to move beyond Biden calling out the Saudi royal as a pariah for his role in the 2018 killing of Jamal Khashoggi, the former palace insider turned critic and columnist for the Washington Post. The White House notably this week didn’t comment on the PGA Tour and LIV golf merger while 9/11 victims’ families and some Democrats on Capitol Hill quickly bashed the U.S. golf league for caving to the Saudis. “I don’t think making the Saudis cry uncle is especially interesting. I think trying to figure out how to engage with important partners who are looking to do something different and think the world is moving in a different direction, that’s interesting,” Alterman of CSIS said.

Etgar Lefkovits, Jewish News Syndicate, “‘Washington thinks Israel-Saudi normalization possible’” June 21, 2023 dmr

The United States believes that a landmark diplomatic deal normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia is achievable, Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said on Tuesday. The remarks come as the Biden administration has embarked on an intense diplomatic push to reach such an agreement, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said could pave the way to ending the Arab-Israeli conflict. “There is an increased American involvement on the issue,” Hanegbi told JNS in an interview in Cyprus. “They believe that there is a possibility [to reach an agreement]. Hanegbi said that the Americans had not yet updated the Israeli government on the contours of such an agreement or what their vision is, and said that the situation remains murky. “There is more hidden than known,” he said, using the popular Hebrew saying. At the same time, Hanegbi said that “generally speaking” he was “optimistic” that it was possible to enlarge the circle of Arab countries that have normalized relations with Israel since the historic Abraham Accords were signed under President Trump in 2020. He noted, however, that in the case of Saudi Arabia the ball was not in Israel’s court. “It’s up to them,” Hanegbi said. “We want normalization and peace, but they have their own demands of the Americans.” Earlier this month, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia. In return for normalization with Israel, Riyadh reportedly wants American support for its civilian nuclear program, something Washington has long opposed, as well as a strong security pact with the United States. Israeli officials had previously said that intense efforts were underway to reach a normalization accord with the Saudis by the end of the year. Netanyahu has called a deal with the Saudis a “quantum leap” for regional peace, which would effectively end the Arab-Israeli conflict. Hanegbi said that the premier’s long-held vision for peace with the Arab world served as “a compass” for regional accords.

Any new defense pact or nuclear deal with the Saudis would require congressional approval, a tall order given the ambivalent or outright hostile attitude of some prominent Democratic lawmakers toward the kingdom. Along with Republican colleagues, lawmakers have denounced Prince Mohammed for the murder of Mr. Khashoggi — in which he has vehemently denied playing any role — and the mass killing of civilians in the war in Yemen. A top Democrat in the Senate, Robert Menendez of New Jersey, has placed a hold on the sale of certain weapons to Saudi Arabia. Lawmakers have also expressed apprehension over any move by Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium in its territory, citing proliferation concerns. For years, the State Department has been trying to negotiate what it calls a 123 agreement with the Saudis, which would lay out tough nonproliferation criteria to allow for American cooperation on civilian nuclear energy, though Saudi officials have balked at the restrictions in part because of Iran’s program. The United States has such an agreement with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia’s neighbor, that bans in-country uranium enrichment. But Democratic and Republican lawmakers are generally supportive of promoting normalization between Israel and Arab nations, and they know that such accords can be a political gain to win over pro-Israel voters during election seasons. Aides working for the two top senators on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Mr. Menendez and Jim Risch, Republican of Idaho, are drafting a bill that calls for the U.S. government to try to deepen the Abraham Accords and expand what they call “regional integration.” Among the Republicans, an unlikely figure has stepped forward offering to help: Mr. Graham. In an interview, he said he has been working with top Biden administration officials to help to broker Saudi-Israeli peace. “Ending the Arab-Israeli conflict would be a game changer for the world and further isolate Iran,” he said. Mr. Graham says he has spoken to Senator Mitch McConnell, the Kentucky Republican and minority leader, and other top G.OP. lawmakers, and said there would potentially be “a lot of support on the Republican side.” He met with Prince Mohammed in Riyadh earlier this year, and has frequent discussions with senior Israeli officials. Although he was one of the most strident critics of Prince Mohammed after Mr. Khashoggi’s killing and once called the crown prince “a wrecking ball to the region jeopardizing our national security interests on multiple fronts,” Mr. Graham has now changed his tune. While “the Khashoggi thing is no small matter,” he said he made a decision to re-engage with Saudi Arabia because it is in the interests of the United States — isolating Iran and possibly blunting China’s influence over Saudi Arabia.

Marc Rod, “Hill Dems skeptical of Saudi-Israel normalization, despite Biden admin’s interest in a deal,” May 30, 2023 dmr

Achieving a peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia — the brass ring of Arab-Israeli normalization with the potential to radically change the shape of the Middle East — is potentially achievable in the short term, analysts say, but myriad obstacles remain. The Biden administration is reportedly pushing for a deal by year’s end. Saudi Arabia is asking, as part of the negotiations, for increased military cooperation with the U.S., sales of advanced weapons from the U.S. with a speedier approval process and assistance developing its civilian nuclear power program, including domestic uranium enrichment. Both Saudi Arabia and the U.S. are expected to press Israel to take steps to advance the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Saudi demands are likely to be problematic among lawmakers on Capitol Hill, especially Democrats, who have repeatedly pushed back against arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the kingdom’s nuclear program. Vocal opponents of such programs in the past have included lawmakers who are also strong supporters of Israel and influential Democrats in senior foreign policy roles on the Hill. Rep. Brad Sherman (D-CA), a staunch supporter of Israel who has also backed legislation seeking to cut off arms sales to and nuclear cooperation with Riyadh, expressed deep skepticism of many of the reported Saudi conditions. “The short-term political benefits go to whatever politicians are in office when this great celebratory [agreement] with the Saudis… is concluded,” Sherman told Jewish Insider last week. “The issue has got to be what’s in the long-term interest of Israel and the United States. And [the Abraham] Accords exist until they’re discarded, whereas weapons are forever, and nuclear weapons are forever.” Sherman compared the potential fallout of expanded arms sales to Saudi Arabia to the fall of Iran’s shah, which left a vast supply of U.S. weapons in the hands of the Islamic Republic. Sherman said that a change in government in Saudi Arabia, or a change in policy by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman — whom Sherman described as “a mercurial guy” — could leave a vast supply of advanced American weapons in unsavory hands. Sherman took an even harder line on potential nuclear assistance, noting that Saudi Arabia has resisted the sort of safeguards to which other U.S. partners such as the United Arab Emirates have agreed. He argued that a nuclear-armed Saudi Arabia could be just as dangerous as a nuclear-armed Iran. “Just because the Saudis are not Shiites does not mean that they are Zionists,” Sherman said. “Anything that brings Saudi Arabia closer to a nuclear weapon is a non-starter with Brad Sherman.” Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA) has been an outspoken critic of the Saudis’ human rights record; Washington Post contributor Jamaal Khashoggi, whom U.S. intelligence alleges was executed on the orders of Bin Salman, was one of Connolly’s constituents. “We still have unfinished business with Saudi Arabia, and that’s the murder of Jamaal Khashoggi,” Connolly said. “I’m very reluctant to expand the relationship in any fashion until that issue is adjudicated and justice is brought to Mr. Khashoggi and his family.” Rep. David Cicilline (D-RI), who led a past effort in the House to block arms sales to Saudi Arabia, told JI he’d view any deal including increased arms sales to and military cooperation with Saudi Arabia with “tremendous skepticism.” Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY), the ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, who has also been a skeptic of arms sales to Saudi Arabia, struck a more positive tone. Meeks told JI that Saudi normalization with Israel would be “tremendously” important and that he “support[s] it and encourage[s] it,” but added that “there has to be some dialogue and conversation with Saudi Arabia. Some of the concerns that I’ve had previously, whether it is with weapons… there still has to be a dialogue and conversation. Human rights is still an issue… Dialogue and conversation is important, and I’m willing to have that and move in that direction.” Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, predicted that “if [there is] real normalization, then I think a Democratic Congress might be willing to support” arms sales to Saudi Arabia, but noted that such a situation could ultimately depend on presidential veto authority — which blocked a previous effort to cut off arms to the kingdom. Miller added that if Saudi Arabia sticks to all of its demands, an agreement will likely not be feasible. Mark Dubowitz, the CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that there are also a number of ways for the administration to circumvent potential congressional opposition. The administration, he explained, could use executive authorities to declare Saudi Arabia a major non-NATO ally and a “major defense partner.” The latter is a designation previously granted to India that could provide “a whole host of military benefits — it can basically be anything the president wants it to be.” Biden could also shorten the congressional review period for weapons sales to Saudi Arabia. Dubowitz described the nuclear issue as “much more complicated” than the weapons sales, in part because past U.S. agreements with allies for nuclear cooperation include clauses that would require the U.S. to renegotiate those deals if the U.S. were to allow Saudi Arabia to enrich or reprocess uranium. He said there are a “variety of formulations” that are possible to circumvent the enrichment issue, but added that “if the Israelis draw a clear red line against any kind of Saudi enrichment in any capacity, that’s probably going to be a nonstarter in Washington, particularly in Congress.” Rob Satloff, the Segal executive director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, argued that focusing on specific conditions of a potential deal is not productive. “It’s natural but still a mistake to address each item in a very complicated three-way negotiation in a vacuum. Looked at individually, quite a few of the items will be problematic, either for us or for one of the other parties to deliver,” Satloff said. “The real challenge of this negotiation is that it’s three-dimensional, and that each of the parties will have to offer very substantial assets to both of the other parties in order to achieve the desired result… When thinking of all the moving parts, it’s vital to keep in mind we’re talking about an environment in which the region is transformed via a Saudi-Israel full normalization agreement that would trigger normalization agreements with numerous other Arab and Muslim states.” Saudi and Israeli leaders could see finalizing a deal while Biden remains in office as a way to help lock in congressional Democratic support for a deal. Biden, meanwhile, could benefit politically from a foreign policy victory in the Middle East after failing to rein in Iran’s nuclear program and being blindsided by a diplomatic deal China orchestrated between Saudi Arabia and Iran. “The Saudis want it done under a Biden administration because I think they understand that having a Democratic president would certainly be better in terms of bringing Congress along,” Dubowitz said. “A Republican president could bring Republicans but not necessarily Democrats. A Democratic president could bring both.” Dubowitz said he heard this sentiment in Saudi Arabia during a recent visit to Riyadh. He compared the situation to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s drive in 2016 to negotiate a memorandum of understanding on military aid with the U.S. under former President Barack Obama to secure greater Democratic support, despite the two leaders’ personal animosity. Miller said that Bin Salman harbors deep “animosity and disdain” for Biden, which could disincentivize from striking a deal while Biden remains president. Doing a deal with Biden, he added “would be harder but it would probably create a certain amount of bipartisanship that wouldn’t exist, presumably, if this deal was done under a Republican president.” Analysts also said that finalizing a Saudi-Israel deal could help unlock greater congressional support for Saudi Arabia. Dubowitz noted that a deal could rally support from the network of pro-Israel Americans and lobbying groups who maintain influence with Congress. Miller described the Saudi leader as taking a similar path as former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat, explaining, “when you’re talking about getting buy-in from Congress, the best way to do it is via Jerusalem.” Demands related to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process could be significantly constrained by Netanyahu’s right-wing governing coalition. “It’s hard for me to envision any concession of real value and meaning for the Palestinains that Netanyahu would be prepared to make given the current constraints of his government,” Miller said. “The question is not what Netanyahu’s prepared to give. It’s what MBS is prepared to accept. How low is his threshold for satisfying his needs or requirements on the Palestinian issue?” Dubowitz said there are a range of measures Israel and the Palestinians can take, with Saudi assistance, to reduce tensions well short of a full peace process. But even limited steps could challenge Netanyahu’s governing coalition. Dubowitz said that Netanyahu could present the situation to Israeli voters as “a very stark choice” between significantly expanded normalization and support for “some far-flung settlements,” in a bid to “isolate” extreme members of his coalition and convince them to come along or be relegated to the opposition in a new round of elections. Or Netanyahu could use a normalization agreement to seek a unity government with Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz, Dubowitz said, although that could raise issues for Netanyahu’s personal legal challenges. Satloff noted that the White House is likely to ask for as much, if not more, on the Israeli-Palestinian issue as Riyadh. He noted that the progress on the Palestinian portfolio could also help sell the deal to American progressives. “The [concessions Saudi Arabia has reportedly asked for from the U.S.], part of the environment in which that is possible is an environment in which this Israeli government does things on the Palestinian issue that one would think are extremely difficult and may even trigger a coalition crisis or the formation of a new government in Israel,” Satloff said. Overall, Miller said, “the chances of [a normalization deal] happening are better now than ever before,” pointing to recent public comments by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, who conducted talks earlier this month in Riyadh and Jerusalem. “But,” Miller continued, “the factors that need to be aligned — the sun, the moon and the stars — right now are not in alignment. And that, I think, is the key question. Can you figure out a way to solve the triangular puzzle in a way all the pieces fit together? Satloff said that “there’s a lot of work to be done” and “any number of minefields that need to be navigated,” but also “clearly a possibility of a breakthrough.” He noted that the normalization process is a much higher priority for Israel and Saudi Arabia than it is for the U.S. in the current environment, another potential obstacle. “I take some measure of hope that the Biden administration is taking this seriously and is committing considerable effort to this, which is necessary. It’s not sufficient, but it’s certainly necessary,” Satloff said. “The three parties are engaged, it’s serious and so I think the possibility is real.” Dubowitz argued that “all three parties have a vested interest in making it happen before election season kicks in.” He said that Saudi Arabia’s decision on whether to allow direct flights between Israel and Jeddah for the Hajj, the annual pilgrimage to Mecca that begins in late June, will be a barometer on the state of normalization efforts. “I think that would be a good indicator that Saudi-Israel normalization is on a positive trajectory,” Dubowitz said. “If it’s not done, that doesn’t mean Saudi-Israel normalization is off the rails. But if it is done, I think it’s a positive step forward.”

Mitchell Plitnick is the president of ReThinking Foreign Policy. He is the co-author, with Marc Lamont Hill, of Except for Palestine: The Limits of Progressive Politics. Mitchell's previous positions include vice president at the Foundation for Middle East Peace, Director of the US Office of B'Tselem, and Co-Director of Jewish Voice for Peace.

dmr

Jacob, Times of Israel, “Foreign minister says Israel ‘very optimistic’ on normalization deal with Saudis,” June 26, 2023, dmr

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said Sunday there was a relatively short “window of opportunity” for a coveted, US-brokered normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia in the coming months, and that Jerusalem was optimistic about a potential deal that would be separate from the 2020 Abraham Accords. In a briefing with diplomatic reporters, Cohen said talks on such an agreement were ongoing through various channels, but mainly via Washington. “We are very optimistic about the possibility of achieving such an agreement. This is an achievable agreement, after which more countries will follow,” said Cohen without specifying. Israel signed normalization agreements with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco in 2020. The foreign minister said the Saudis “were also interested in such an agreement,” which he said “will not be part” of the Abraham Accords and would include other countries as well. According to Israeli assessments, he said, “there is a window of opportunity until March 2024” for an agreement with Riyadh, “after which the political system in the US will focus on the presidential elections” later that year. Talk of a potential Jerusalem-Riyadh deal has swirled over the past few months as the Biden administration has intensified its effort to broker an agreement. In early June, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken nudged the Saudis on diplomatic normalization with Israel on a visit to Jeddah and Riyadh. Days later, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan said that normalizing ties with Israel would bring significant benefits to the region but that those benefits would be limited by the absence of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Allison is one of several analysts who have recently advanced the argument that the United States should make a virtue of necessity—that it should accept Russian and Chinese spheres of influence, encompassing some portion of eastern Europe and the western Pacific, as the price of stability and peace. The logic is twofold: first, to create a cleaner separation between contending parties by clearly marking where one’s influence ends and the other’s begins; and second, to reduce the chances of conflict by giving rising or resurgent powers a safe zone along their borders. In theory, this seems like a reasonable way of preventing competition from turning into outright conflict, especially given that countries such as Taiwan and the Baltic states lie thousands of miles from the United States but on the doorsteps of its rivals. Yet in reality, a spheres-of-influence world would bring more peril than safety.

Russia’s and China’s spheres of influence would inevitably be domains of coercion and authoritarianism. Both countries are run by illiberal, autocratic regimes; their leaders see democratic values as profoundly threatening to their political survival. If Moscow and Beijing dominated their respective neighborhoods, they would naturally seek to undermine democratic governments that resist their control—as China is already doing in Taiwan and as Russia is doing in Ukraine—or that challenge, through their very existence, the legitimacy of authoritarian rule. The practical consequence of acceding to authoritarian spheres of influence would be to intensify the crisis of democracy that afflicts the world today.

Without a change in course, the United States and Saudi Arabia are headed toward a strategic divorce. Were that to happen, sensitive military and dual-use commercial relationships between Riyadh and Beijing would preclude Washington from sharing certain military hardware, intelligence, and high-tech systems with the kingdom. And as the Chinese-Saudi partnership grows, Israel will also find itself under pressure to keep its distance, although normalization with the Saudis remains a coveted strategic prize for its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. Any exposure and vulnerability to China inside Israel’s defense and high-tech sectors inevitably causes problems for U.S.-Israel defense and high-tech cooperation; in effect, were the Saudis to leave the American alliance structure and integrate into China’s, Israel would be forced to choose between its most important benefactor and diplomatic relations with the most significant kingdom in the Arab world.

All of this is great news for China and its most natural ally in the Middle East, Iran. As the U.S. pulls back further from the region and Saudi-Israel normalization gets put on hold, China will fill the vacuum—using its influence on both Iran and on America’s erstwhile Gulf allies to play the kind of global energy politics the U.S. mastered during the cold war. What is now a primarily commercial partnership between Beijing and Riyadh will take on increasing strategic significance, and Saudi Arabia (along with Iran) will become one of several oil-producing friends China can rely upon during moments of confrontation with the United States.

Barak, Contributing Correspondent at Axios based in Tel-Aviv, “Biden admin pushing for Saudi-Israeli peace deal by end of year, officials say” May 17, 2023 dmr

The White House wants to make a diplomatic push for a Saudi-Israeli peace deal in the next six to seven months before the presidential election campaign consumes President Biden’s agenda, two U.S. officials with knowledge of the issue told Axios. Why it matters: Any normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel brokered by the U.S. will likely include an upgrade in U.S.-Saudi relations and a package of tangible deliverables from the U.S. government. Such a deal could be unpopular among Democrats and might cost Biden a lot of political capital. Biden once vowed to make Saudi Arabia a "pariah" over the kingdom's human rights record and the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. U.S. intelligence says Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is responsible for Khashoggi's murder — an allegation Saudi Arabia denies. But a deal could be a historic breakthrough in Middle East peace, leading to a domino effect of more Arab and Muslim-majority countries normalizing relations with Israel and putting U.S.-Saudi relations back on track. Driving the news: White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan met with MBS last week in Jeddah and, among other issues, discussed the possibility of Saudi-Israeli normalization, the U.S. officials said. After the meeting, White House Middle East czar Brett McGurk and Biden’s senior adviser Amos Hochstein traveled to Jerusalem and briefed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Behind the scenes: According to the two U.S. officials, Sullivan told MBS the U.S. thinks there is an opportunity to get a Saudi-Israeli deal by the end of the year. MBS said he doesn’t want to take any more incremental steps toward warming relations with Israel, but instead, work toward one big package that will include U.S. deliverables like stronger military cooperation, one U.S. official said. The Saudi Embassy in Washington did not respond to specific questions related to this story. Two senior U.S. officials said it's in Saudi Arabia's interest to get a normalization agreement with Israel while President Biden is in office because it would receive more bipartisan political support and legitimacy in Washington, especially when it is likely to include U.S. steps toward Saudi Arabia that would be unpopular. While Republicans in Congress generally support a deal with Saudi Arabia, many Democrats who are critical of the kingdom will only support such an agreement if done under a president of their own party, the two U.S. officials said. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, who visited Saudi Arabia and Israel several weeks before Sullivan’s trip, met MBS in Jeddah and gave him a similar message about getting a deal with Biden. "I told the crown prince that the best time to upgrade our relationship is now, that President Biden is very interested in normalizing relationships with Saudi Arabia and, in turn, Saudi Arabia recognizing [Israel]," Graham said in a statement after his meeting with Netanyahu in Jerusalem several days after he met MBS. “I believe that the Republican Party, writ large, would be glad to work with President Biden to change the relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia," he added. What they're saying: A National Security Council spokesperson said the White House "does not comment on the content of private diplomatic discussions." "The United States is fully committed to strengthening and expanding the Abraham Accords and supporting Israel’s integration into the Middle East," the spokesperson added. "This will be an area of continued emphasis and focus for us over the coming period as we look to achieve a more integrated, more prosperous, and more stable region that serves the interests of our partners and the United States over the long term." Between the lines: A senior Israeli official told Axios he agrees with this analysis and also stressed the Saudis would be better off cutting a deal with a Democratic president. The Israeli official compared it to Netanyahu’s decision to get the security assistance deal with President Obama in 2016 and not waiting for a possible electoral win by then-presidential candidate Donald Trump. “The fact we got the deal with Obama strengthened support by Democrats in Congress for U.S. military aid to Israel," the official said. Israel sees Saudi Arabia as the “holy grail” of its outreach to the Arab world and has long wanted to normalize relations with the kingdom, especially since the signing of the Trump-brokered Abraham Accords in 2020. State of play: U.S. officials say that one of the biggest hurdles to getting a wide-ranging deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel has to do with the Saudi request to upgrade is military cooperation with the U.S. and gain access to sophisticated U.S. weapon systems it doesn't currently have. The Saudis also want to be able to purchase munitions from the U.S. for their air force after such sales were suspended by the Biden administration weeks after the president assumed office due to the war in Yemen. U.S. and Israeli officials say the truce in Yemen, which was boosted by the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, creates better conditions for improving U.S.-Saudi ties and for moving forward with such a deal. U.S. and Israeli officials say another hurdle is the Saudi request to get U.S. support for a Saudi nuclear program that will include uranium enrichment. The possibility of Saudi Arabia developing a nuclear energy program, including independent uranium enrichment, is a matter of serious concern for Israel, but Israeli officials say there are several possible solutions that are being discussed to mitigate the nuclear proliferation concerns. What to watch: Any deal will likely include a “Palestinian component” that Israel will have to agree to. The Saudis said publicly that normalization with Israel will take place only if there is progress on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. It is unclear what the Saudis and the U.S. will ask for and how far Netanyahu’s far-right government will go to secure a deal.

Tracy, LA Times, “Pariah or partner? U.S. navigates complicated, contradictory relationship with Saudi Arabia” June 13, 2023 dmr

WASHINGTON — Visits to Saudi Arabia by high-profile U.S. officials are always problematic. The two countries have a love-hate relationship. Politicians and the public criticize the Saudi kingdom’s human rights record and repression of women; its unwillingness to increase oil production; its coziness with Russia, China and, now, even with erstwhile enemy Iran. But the U.S. and Saudi Arabia also need each other — for trade and for broader security arrangements in the Middle East, including conflicts in Yemen and Sudan, where they work together to broker cease-fires or deliver humanitarian aid to devastated populations. And the Biden administration is fervently coaxing Riyadh to establish diplomatic ties with Israel, following similar Trump-era breakthrough gestures by a small number of other gulf or Muslim nations. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken wrapped up a four-day visit to the Saudi cities of Jeddah and Riyadh last week, which included a midnight meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Salman, the de facto ruler of the nation, is a ruthless dictator, a bold reformer or both, depending on whom you ask. The 37-year-old prince is largely considered responsible for the brutal killing and dismemberment of U.S.-based Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul in 2018. President Biden once called Salman a pariah and vowed to shun him, a pledge eventually reversed in a famous fist bump between the two last year. Executions of perceived enemies of the kingdom have surged under Salman’s rule, human rights activists say, and reports of arbitrary detention and torture of activists, including many women, persist — even as he lifted some anachronistic restrictions on women, such as allowing them to drive cars. Despite the litany of Saudi transgressions, the Biden administration is engaging with the kingdom as a way to demonstrate it still has influence in the Middle East — at a time many in the region note Washington has been absent in consequential events and decisions and as China and Russia flex their diplomatic and military muscle where the U.S. was once the unrivaled superpower. “I would say that my presence here over the last three days is one element to demonstrate that, no, we’re certainly not leaving. We’re here to stay,” Blinken told the Saudi-based Asharq News network Thursday when asked about the U.S. commitment to the region. “Day in, day out, we’re working with partners throughout the region … both to deal with many of the challenges that … are real and urgent and acute, but also — and this is so important — on an affirmative agenda for the future,” Blinken added. “We are a partner, and we’re here.” Blinken, in a separate news conference in Riyadh, said he “discussed” human rights in his meetings with Salman and other Saudi officials and “made clear that progress on human rights strengthens our relationship.” He said he raised “specific” cases, including those of several U.S. citizens who are imprisoned in the kingdom, but would not say whether he had secured guarantees of their freedom nor would he enter into any other details. Critics accuse the Biden administration of papering over Saudi abuses and fault it for not denouncing them more robustly, which in turn emboldens Salman. “The administration needs to abandon its behind-closed-doors approach to addressing human rights” in Saudi Arabia, said Tess McEnery, who served on Biden’s National Security Council until last year and now heads the nongovernmental Project on Middle East Democracy. “There need to be clear public costs to [Salman’s] repression. … For nearly a year [since the Biden visit], we’ve seen what a policy of appeasement looks like.” The Biden administration sanctioned some members of the Saudi security apparatus for the 2018 murder of Washington Post contributing columnist Khashoggi, but not Salman, whom U.S. intelligence officials believe probably ordered the killing. In Congress, lawmakers have revived legislation that could block arms sales to Saudi Arabia based on its human rights record, and two measures have been proposed that would punish governments for “transnational repression,” the illegal pursuit by a country outside its borders of dissidents or critics, as happened with Khashoggi. It is a tactic also frequently used by Russian President Vladimir Putin, whose government has been accused of hunting down and poisoning opponents in England and elsewhere. While in Saudi Arabia last week, Blinken also came under criticism for praising what he called Saudi “progress” on its treatment of women, lauding the first female Saudi astronaut to go into space and meeting with eight handpicked Saudi women identified by the State Department as leaders. Blinken’s remarks came even as numerous Saudi women are being given decades-long prison sentences for what supporters say are minor offenses, such as failing to wear an abaya on social media or tweeting criticisms of the kingdom. Substantial progress for women “is only a narrative that the Saudi government is selling to the West,” Lina AlHathloul, a longtime Saudi activist fighting for women’s rights and free speech, said in an interview from Brussels, where she has sought refuge from her government. “It is only window dressing. … And the government sees a green light to double down on repression.” AlHathloul campaigned for years to free her sister Loujain, who was arrested in 2018 for driving. Loujain is out of prison now but banned from traveling or speaking publicly. Though women have been granted the right to drive and some access to elections, Saudi Arabia’s so-called guardianship rules remain in place, which restrict many activities such as travel or marriage for women without a male relative’s permission. Saudi officials insist that they have made significant progress in human rights, but will only advance on their own terms. “We are always open to having a dialogue with our friends, but we don’t respond to pressure,” Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan said at the Riyadh news conference with Blinken. “When we do anything, we do it in our own interests. And I don’t think that anybody believes that pressure is useful or helpful, and therefore that’s not something that we are going to even consider.” One reason the Biden administration seeks to keep its relationship with Saudi Arabia on a cordial keel is the role the oil-rich kingdom can play in integrating Israel into a region that has long refused to recognize Israel’s existence. The Trump administration brokered the Abraham Accords, under which the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain for the first time opened diplomatic and economic ties with Israel. As the powerhouse of the gulf, Saudi Arabia would be a prized addition to the declaration, but it is so far resisting. Saudi officials cite the continued failure to resolve the Palestinian quest for an independent state. Riyadh has also listed a series of high-stake demands, including U.S. help in developing nuclear power, but U.S. officials see that as an opening gambit. Meanwhile, the current Israeli government is the most right-wing in its history, with possibilities for progress on the Palestinian cause considered nonexistent. In Riyadh last week, Blinken said Saudi-Israeli normalization remained a “priority.” But the Saudi foreign minister countered that while desirable, the goal would remain remote “without finding a pathway to peace for the Palestinian people … a pathway towards a two-state solution, on finding a pathway towards giving the Palestinians dignity and justice.” It would also be a bad look for the Saudis to get closer to Israel at a time when deadly clashes and attacks are surging in Israel, the occupied West Bank and the Gaza Strip, and after several incursions by Israeli police into the Al Aqsa Mosque compound, said Khaled Elgindy, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute. Al Aqsa is the third-holiest site in Islam, located in an area also sacred to Jews. “The Saudis are not in a hurry to normalize,” he said, even as “the Biden administration has prioritized it higher on the list than [an independent state] for the Palestinians, which is now just a talking point.” Shira Efron, research director at the U.S.-based Israel Policy Forum, said that while Israel badly wants to enjoy the fruits of normalization, the pieces of the puzzle remain exceedingly complicated, with U.S. and Israel reluctant to accede to the Saudis’ most robust demands. “And if the U.S. and Saudi Arabia were able to agree on what the U.S. will give, would Congress approve?” she said, adding that room for negotiation is likely to shrink as the U.S. presidential election gets into full swing.

For years, the great nations of Europe spent huge sums of money to build their military might. They assembled themselves into blocs, all the better to play a dangerous game of power politics. Slowly, surely, they were stumbling toward war.∂ In June 1914, an assassin shot the heir to the throne of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and the powder keg was lit. The results were disastrous.∂ The Middle East today looks frighteningly similar to the Europe of the early 20th Century.∂ For years, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have competed—Iran, as the champion of the Shia Islamic world, the House of Saud as the de facto leader of the Sunni world.∂ Iran has a massive military, as well as major capabilities in unconventional warfare and espionage. It influences or outright controls Hezbollah in Lebanon, Assad in Syria, and the powerful Shia militias in Iraq. Now, Tehran is encouraging—and most likely aiding—the Al Houthis rebelling in Yemen. ∂ The Saudis, powerful in their own right, have allied with Al Sisi in Egypt, King Abdullah in Jordan, and most of the other Gulf Arab States. They are also allied with the Pakistanis, who have one of the largest militaries in the world, and nuclear weapons to boot. Additionally, there is a growing possibility that the Turks may throw in with the Sunni side. ∂ It’s a huge amount of fire power, rivalry and armed conflict concentrated in a comparatively small region. And this tinderbox could blow up into a major conflagration, with destructive consequences unparalleled since World War Two.∂ But, some might say, these opposing blocs have been in place for decades, why the worry now? Quite simply, because America is no longer playing the role it has played in the region for a long, long time. ∂ For decades, the U.S. served as security guarantor and diplomatic trouble-shooter for our friends in the region. The Saudis, Jordanians, Egyptians, and other friendlies didn’t have to worry that Iran would gain regional hegemony. They knew a strong, assertive America would keep Iran’s ambitions in check. Meanwhile, Iran and its proxies knew they could go only so far before being slowed and stopped by the judicious use of America power. The credible threat of American hard power was enough to keep our friends calm and our enemies quiet. ∂ That has changed. Our enemies have seen the U.S. “lead from behind” in Libya, then turn its back on our consulate in Benghazi. They’ve seen us draw a “red line” in Syria, then walk away when Assad called our bluff. They’ve seen Russia annex Crimea and bolster the separatists in eastern Ukraine while America refuses to provide military aid to Kiev. They’ve seen us flinch at the thought of putting American boots on the ground in the fight against ISIS. ∂ Put it all together, and it’s a picture of an America that is timid, or confused, or flaccid—a nation that still talks a good hard-power game, but lacks the will to follow through. ∂ Moreover, they see an Administration so hungry for a “legacy” deal with Iran, that the Iranians considerable negotiating skills are not even being taxed. In the G5+1 talks in Lausanne Secretary of State John Kerry has made concession after concession with no quid pro quo from Iran—to the point that France is now emerging as the hardliner on our side of the negotiating table.∂ Our enemies aren’t the only ones who notice these developments. Our friends do, too. What must the Saudis and the others think when they see the administration cast aside regional ally No. 1—Israel? Can their “push out the door” be far off if they get in the way of the Administration’s single-minded drive to appease the Iranian regime? ∂ Those friends now have reason to fear that the nuclear negotiations with Iran will accelerate the U.S. withdrawal from the region or—even worse—produce an Iranian-American rapprochement at their expense. It is this fear that has led our friends to band together to defend themselves against what they know to be a growing threat: Iran. While the Obama administration may be willing to turn a blind eye to this threat in its pursuit of a nuclear deal, Iran’s neighbors do not have that luxury. ∂ Since the U.S. has cut back on dispensing its usual antibiotics, our jittery friends in the Middle East now feel that they must counter—strongly and immediately—the local infections promoted and exploited by Iran. And they are sometimes doing so without consulting the U.S.∂ The result is a Middle East more explosive and unpredictable than ever. The conditions are now ripe for a major Middle Eastern war—one that could spill across the globe, wherever Sunni and Shia Muslims interact. All that remains missing is a spark. ∂ Impossible you say? That June day in Sarajevo, no experts predicted the horrifying consequences of Garo Princip’s actions. ∂ Today, the Saudis are massing 150,000 troops on the border with Yemen. The Pakistanis and the Egyptians have promised ground troops. These Sunnis Governments view their alliance as one of self-defense. But it’s a huge threat to Iran’s desires for hegemony, and Tehran may even view it as a threat to the survival of the mullahs’ regime. ∂ No one wants war, big or little. But among the power blocs of the Middle East, Washington’s misbegotten policies have fueled uncertainty on one side and perceived opportunity on the other. ∂ In the aftermath of the Second World War, Americans have always dreaded a clash of the superpowers. But the lesson of the First World War is that when large regional powers—especially those driven by sectarian and apocalyptic forces—are poised to fight, any miscalculation can be equally cataclysmic. ∂ That situation exists today in the Middle East. And the Administration, far from easing the tensions, is actively destabilizing the region through its dealings with Iran.

Title: What will come first: War with Iran or peace with Saudi Arabia?

Like many things in the Middle East, timing is rarely a coincidence. On Tuesday, as IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi was addressing a conference in Herzliya where he issued a threat to attack Iran, a mysterious explosion took place at a chemical factory about 100 km west of Tehran.

Barak, Contributing Correspondent at Axios based in Tel-Aviv, “Biden admin pushing for Saudi-Israeli peace deal by end of year, officials say” May 17, 2023 dmr

The White House wants to make a diplomatic push for a Saudi-Israeli peace deal in the next six to seven months before the presidential election campaign consumes President Biden’s agenda, two U.S. officials with knowledge of the issue told Axios. Why it matters: Any normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel brokered by the U.S. will likely include an upgrade in U.S.-Saudi relations and a package of tangible deliverables from the U.S. government. Such a deal could be unpopular among Democrats and might cost Biden a lot of political capital. Biden once vowed to make Saudi Arabia a "pariah" over the kingdom's human rights record and the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. U.S. intelligence says Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is responsible for Khashoggi's murder — an allegation Saudi Arabia denies. But a deal could be a historic breakthrough in Middle East peace, leading to a domino effect of more Arab and Muslim-majority countries normalizing relations with Israel and putting U.S.-Saudi relations back on track. Driving the news: White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan met with MBS last week in Jeddah and, among other issues, discussed the possibility of Saudi-Israeli normalization, the U.S. officials said. After the meeting, White House Middle East czar Brett McGurk and Biden’s senior adviser Amos Hochstein traveled to Jerusalem and briefed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Behind the scenes: According to the two U.S. officials, Sullivan told MBS the U.S. thinks there is an opportunity to get a Saudi-Israeli deal by the end of the year. MBS said he doesn’t want to take any more incremental steps toward warming relations with Israel, but instead, work toward one big package that will include U.S. deliverables like stronger military cooperation, one U.S. official said. The Saudi Embassy in Washington did not respond to specific questions related to this story. Two senior U.S. officials said it's in Saudi Arabia's interest to get a normalization agreement with Israel while President Biden is in office because it would receive more bipartisan political support and legitimacy in Washington, especially when it is likely to include U.S. steps toward Saudi Arabia that would be unpopular. While Republicans in Congress generally support a deal with Saudi Arabia, many Democrats who are critical of the kingdom will only support such an agreement if done under a president of their own party, the two U.S. officials said. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, who visited Saudi Arabia and Israel several weeks before Sullivan’s trip, met MBS in Jeddah and gave him a similar message about getting a deal with Biden. "I told the crown prince that the best time to upgrade our relationship is now, that President Biden is very interested in normalizing relationships with Saudi Arabia and, in turn, Saudi Arabia recognizing [Israel]," Graham said in a statement after his meeting with Netanyahu in Jerusalem several days after he met MBS. “I believe that the Republican Party, writ large, would be glad to work with President Biden to change the relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia," he added. What they're saying: A National Security Council spokesperson said the White House "does not comment on the content of private diplomatic discussions." "The United States is fully committed to strengthening and expanding the Abraham Accords and supporting Israel’s integration into the Middle East," the spokesperson added. "This will be an area of continued emphasis and focus for us over the coming period as we look to achieve a more integrated, more prosperous, and more stable region that serves the interests of our partners and the United States over the long term." Between the lines: A senior Israeli official told Axios he agrees with this analysis and also stressed the Saudis would be better off cutting a deal with a Democratic president. The Israeli official compared it to Netanyahu’s decision to get the security assistance deal with President Obama in 2016 and not waiting for a possible electoral win by then-presidential candidate Donald Trump. “The fact we got the deal with Obama strengthened support by Democrats in Congress for U.S. military aid to Israel," the official said. Israel sees Saudi Arabia as the “holy grail” of its outreach to the Arab world and has long wanted to normalize relations with the kingdom, especially since the signing of the Trump-brokered Abraham Accords in 2020. State of play: U.S. officials say that one of the biggest hurdles to getting a wide-ranging deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel has to do with the Saudi request to upgrade is military cooperation with the U.S. and gain access to sophisticated U.S. weapon systems it doesn't currently have. The Saudis also want to be able to purchase munitions from the U.S. for their air force after such sales were suspended by the Biden administration weeks after the president assumed office due to the war in Yemen. U.S. and Israeli officials say the truce in Yemen, which was boosted by the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement, creates better conditions for improving U.S.-Saudi ties and for moving forward with such a deal. U.S. and Israeli officials say another hurdle is the Saudi request to get U.S. support for a Saudi nuclear program that will include uranium enrichment. The possibility of Saudi Arabia developing a nuclear energy program, including independent uranium enrichment, is a matter of serious concern for Israel, but Israeli officials say there are several possible solutions that are being discussed to mitigate the nuclear proliferation concerns. What to watch: Any deal will likely include a “Palestinian component” that Israel will have to agree to. The Saudis said publicly that normalization with Israel will take place only if there is progress on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. It is unclear what the Saudis and the U.S. will ask for and how far Netanyahu’s far-right government will go to secure a deal.