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2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Politics DA › AFF › Won’t Pass—House Blocks

The House Disapproves

Kaplan 7/22 [Melissa; July 22; Senior manager of government affairs for the Food & Environment program at UCS; “Will Congress Do the Right Thing on Agriculture Funding?” https://blog.ucsusa.org/melissa-kaplan/will-congress-do-the-right-thing-on-agriculture-funding/]

The official September 30 deadline for Congress to pass its annual appropriations bills to fund the government for fiscal year 2025 looms closer by the day. So, what kind of progress—if any—are the Senate and House of Representatives making towards this goal? Quite a bit actually, in the arena—but that doesn’t necessarily mean that arriving at a final result will be smooth or easy, or guarantee that this legislation will support climate action, conservation, nutrition, equity, or food and farm workers. The House disappoints The House of Representatives released its FY25 agriculture appropriations bill in June, and since then both the Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee and full House Appropriations Committee voted to approve the bill on party lines, with all Republicans supporting the bill and all Democrats voting against it. The House bill provides total funding of $25.9 billion, a decrease of 1 percent from last year. The legislation also includes cuts to several priority UCS programs, including: . The FY25 House appropriations bill funds conservation programming at approximately $903 million, a cut of $11.9 million from FY24 and well below UCS’s requested funding level of $1.2 billion. . The House bill funds SARE—a competitive grant program helping farmers, ranchers, and researchers improve agricultural sustainability—at $45 million. This is a $3 million cut from last year, and significantly below UCS’s request of $60 million, which is particularly disappointing considering that SARE supports critical agricultural research and should be funded robustly. The received $443 million, a slight cut from last year and below UCS’s $500 million request. Office of Urban Agriculture. The original House bill provided no funding for this office. However, an amendment was included during bill markup that added $4 million, which is great news! . The bill also provides no funding for the . This is very disappointing, as these hubs play a critical role in linking the USDA’s scientific research and expertise with the farmers and workers who feel the impacts of climate change in their work every day. Equity. The House bill funds the and at $10 million each, which is identical to FY24 and matches the amount UCS requested. There was no funding in the bill for the program; UCS had requested $10 million. Aside from funding cuts, the House agriculture appropriations bill also contained several harmful policy provisions. These included language to limit diversity/equity programming and a proposed Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) pilot program that could restrict the types of foods people are able to buy for themselves and their families. The pilot program language, however, was later removed by an amendment in the Appropriations Committee vote, and no such language was included in the Senate bill, which is a big victory!

2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Politics DA › AFF › Won’t Pass—Johnson

Farm bill hopes are falling

Hanrahan 7/15 [Ryan; July 15; editor of Farm Policy News; Agriculture journalist in the American West; Graduate of the University of Missouri; “Farm Bill Hopes Continue to Dwindle for 2024” https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2024/07/farm-bill-hopes-continue-to-dwindle-for-2024/]

that “it’s hard to find anyone optimistic about passing a new farm bill this year. While the two political parties don’t agree on much, there’s a growing consensus that nothing is going to happen this year. All signs point to another (farm bill) extension when the current one expires Sept. 30.” “The chance of a new farm bill is now 12%,” he wrote. “In June, I wrote that the chance of a new bill was a bit under 20%. In hindsight, that was probably too optimistic. Over the past month there’s been plenty of talk about needing a new bill. As for progress, that’s a different story. So why 12%? Well, it’s higher than zero.” Key Priorities of the Senate Ag Republican Farm Bill Proposal. Lawmakers and Industry Groups Not Optimistic that “U.S. Senator Joni Ernst says a new farm bill isn’t likely to get passed this year.” “‘I do applaud our friends over in the House and Chairman GT Thompson,’ Ernst said. ‘They passed a strong bipartisan bill, but I just don’t see that bill moving in the United States Senate.’ The Iowa Republican tells Brownfield she’s frustrated with Senate Ag Committee leadership. ‘Chairwoman Stabenow and the Democrats, they don’t want to focus on the farm bill. What they are doing is focusing a lot on other priorities,'” Barnett reported. In addition, that “U.S. Congressman Dusty Johnson from South Dakota said there’s been no recent tally of support for the legislation. ‘If we’re going to get a farm bill done before the end of the year, we’ll need a lot more than just votes in the House, we’re going to need a work product in the Senate and votes in the Senate,’ he said. ‘We’ll need to go to conference committee to work out the differences and there will be differences,'” Hart reported. that Ethan Lane, the head lobbyist for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association said that “I still think we’re spring of next year before we really are having an honest conversation about passing a farm bill.” “He tells Brownfield the current tone in Washington, D.C makes any progress a challenge. ‘With the Freedom Caucus antics and all of the other problems we’re all highly aware of, with those tight majorities there just isn’t going to be, I don’t believe, the time on the schedule or the right political environment for that bill to move in a responsible way across the House floor,’ he says. ‘Never mind whatever is going on in the Senate.'”

2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Politics DA › AFF › Won’t Pass

No Progress

Baethge 7/11 [Joshua; July 11; Policy editor of Farm Progress; spent 10 years as a news and feature reporter; “Optimism for new farm bill waning,” ]

It’s hard to find anyone optimistic about passing a new farm bill this year. While the two political parties don’t agree on much, there’s a growing consensus that nothing is going to happen this year. All signs point to another extension when the current one expires Sept. 30.

The chance of a new farm bill is now 12% In June, I wrote that was a bit under 20%. In hindsight, that was probably too optimistic. Over the past month there’s been plenty of talk about needing a new bill. As for progress, that’s a different story. So why 12%? Well, it’s higher than zero. The Senate Ag Committee has made little progress advancing the much-hyped farm bill proposals from Democratic Committee Chair Debbie Stabenow and Republican Ranking Member John Boozman. Earlier this week, a reporter asked ag committee member Chuck Grassley, R- Iowa, if he thought Stabenow and Boozman were making a good effort to draft a farm bill compromise. Grassley’s response was telling. “I think the only effort they’ve been making is that they both put out frameworks,” he said. It’s been nearly two months since the House Ag Committee approved a Republican farm bill framework submitted by Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson. Since then, there has been nothing but crickets. Speaker Mike Johnson still hasn’t said if he plans to schedule a vote. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack argues a farm bill won’t get done until all parties look at it from a practical point of view. He says the House bill promises a lot of things to farmers but doesn’t have the money to pay for them. Staffers who drafted the bill contend the math adds up, but the Congressional Budget Office estimates don’t align. “I like to say that they’ve used Harry Potter’s invisibility cloak to essentially cloak over what I think CBO says is at least a $30 billion deficit,” Vilsack says. Ag Committee Ranking Member David Scott used a July 10 committee hearing to slam Republicans for being “selfish” and “disrespectful to farmers.” According to him, the GOP is delaying the farm bill to play election-year politics. “Shouldn’t the Republicans be getting serious about this?” Scott asked. “Speaker Johnson will not bring the bill to the floor for a vote because it was not written as a serious bill. It was written to be used as a campaign slogan, nothing more.”

2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Politics DA › AFF › Won’t Pass

Johnson won’t take the bill to the floor

Jessica Domel 7/12, Field Editor and multimedia reporter at Texas Farm Bureau; Texas Farm Bureau; “Partisan farm bill jabs in Ag Committee hearing”; 7/12/24; https://texasfarmbureau.org/partisan-farm-bill-jabs-in-ag-committee-hearing/; //AR!

A hearing on the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) impact on American agriculture turned briefly into partisan commentary on lack of movement in the farm bill.

During the U.S. House Agriculture Committee hearing July 10, committee Ranking Member David Scott (D-GA) blamed Committee Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-PA) for a stalemate in the farm bill process.

2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Politics DA › AFF › Won’t Pass

This Farm Bill won’t pass any time soon—just like the last three

Allison Winter 7/6, Washington D.C. correspondent for States Newsroom; Iowa Capital Dispatch; “‘Frustrating’ partisan stalemate: the new normal for farm bills?”; 7/06/24, https://iowacapitaldispatch.com/2024/07/06/frustrating-partisan-stalemate-the-new-normal-for-farm-bills/; //AR!

WASHINGTON — The stalemate over the current farm bill may be solidifying a new era in farm politics as it joins the last three farm bills in a trend of delays and partisan division — a contrast from the legislation’s history of bipartisanship.

Every five years, Congress is tasked with drafting a new federal farm bill. The omnibus law that began 90 years ago as various kinds of payments to support farmers now has an impact far beyond the farm, with programs to create wildlife habitat, address climate change and provide the nation’s largest federal nutrition program.

2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Politics DA › NEG › AT//SNAP Won’t Get Cut

The bill doesn’t cut SNAP funding

Sarah Zimmerman ’24, editor at Agriculture Dive; Agriculture Dive; “Farm bill proposal won’t cut SNAP benefits: House ag chair”; 4/17/24; https://www.grocerydive.com/news/farm-bill-retains-snap-food-assistance-thompson-house-republicans/713586/; //AR!

House Agriculture Chairman Glenn “GT” Thompson said Tuesday that his proposal for the farm bill won’t include cuts to food assistance benefits under the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, potentially clearing a major hurdle that has held up negotiations.

The chairman’s farm bill proposal, which has yet to be publicly released, d”oes not cut, decrease, or impact SNAP benefits or the eligibility for them,” a spokesperson for Thompson’s office confirmed to sister publication Agriculture Dive.

2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Politics DA › NEG › Farm Bill—Climate

The bill is key to climate-smart tech and sustainable ag policy

Gabe Vasquez ’24, outdoorsman and conservationist representing New Mexico’s 2nd District; Roll Call; “Climate change threatens our food supply. Congress must pass a modernized farm bill”; 2/02/24; https://rollcall.com/2024/02/02/climate-change-threatens-our-food-supply-congress-must-pass-a-modernized-farm-bill/; //AR!

But it’s also now abundantly clear that climate change is taking its toll on agricultural production. Floods ravage our arroyos and damage our acequias, landscape-scale wildfires burn down pasture fences and record heat and drought make for unproductive and unpredictable growing seasons. That’s why Congress must deliver a farm bill that tackles climate change and allows producers, both big and small, to build sustainable practices with existing and new technology.

Just last year, the largest wildfires the American southwest has ever seen ravaged crops and rangelands, upended decades-old farms and ranches and their families, and paved the way for record floods and erosion. The southwest has long contended with water scarcity, heat, drought and a changing climate only exacerbates these challenges.

2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Politics DA › NEG › Farm Bill—Food Security

Bill must pass—otherwise, we risk food and national security

John Rose ’24; Republican House member, currently serving his third term representing Tennessee’s Sixth Congressional District; The Tennessean; “Stop stalling. Farmers in Tennessee need Congress to pass the bipartisan Farm Bill”; 7/23/24, https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/contributors/2024/07/23/tennessee-farmers-congress-pass-bipartisan-farm-bill/74459838007/; //AR!

As a farmer and former Tennessee Agriculture commissioner, I can attest that providing the food and fiber on which Americans depend requires long hours, taking risks, and enduring volatile markets.

It also requires support from Congress. With farmers and agriculture producers at the top of mind, House Republicans delivered when the House Agriculture Committee (HAC) passed the bipartisan “Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2024,” commonly referred to as the Farm Bill.

2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Politics DA › NEG › Now is Key

Farm Bill needs to pass now—if it doesn’t, we’ll have to wait until next summer or later for it to happen

Carah Hart 7/23, 2024 President for the National Association of Farm Broadcasting; Brownfield; “AG GROUPS ASK CONGRESS TO PASS A NEW FARM BILL THIS YEAR”; 7/23/24; https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/ag-groups-ask-congress-to-pass-a-new-farm-bill-this-year/; //AR!

More than 500 state and national ag groups sent a letter to chamber and agriculture committee leaders in the U.S. House and Senate, asking them to enact a new farm bill in the current Congress.

American Farm Bureau Federation Vice President and South Dakota Farm Bureau President Scott VanderWal tells Brownfield lawmakers need to come the table to work out their differences.

2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Politics DA › NEG › Will Pass—Lobbyist

Organizations push for a passage.

AGDAILY ’24 [July 24; all-digital farming and rural lifestyle publication, “Over 500 organizations press for timely passage of farm bill,” https://www.agdaily.com/news/over-500-organizations-call-for-timely-passage-of-farm-bill/]

Over 500 organizations and companies representing a wide range of Farm Bill stakeholders — including agriculture, nutrition, conservation, environmental, and rural development sectors — have submitted a urging Congress to pass a 2024 farm bill before the end of the year. “Every hour, we lose approximately 150 acres of natural land and 85 acres of farmland and ranchland to development,” said Lori Faeth, senior director of government relations for the Land Trust Alliance, on of the organizations that has signed the letter. “Farm Bill conservation programs are the largest single federal funding source for private land conservation, and it is crucial to help farmers, ranchers, and foresters conserve and enhance their working lands. We hope to work with both the House and Senate to pass a bipartisan Farm Bill this year for the benefit of all Americans.” The letter was sent this week to House Speaker Mike Johnson, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, House Agriculture Chair Glenn “GT” Thompson, House Agriculture Ranking Member David Scott, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Agriculture Chair Debbie Stabenow, and Senate Agriculture Ranking Member John Boozman. The farm bill expired in 2023, but Congress voted to extend the current iteration for one year — until September 30. Since then, many farm bill programs have been in limbo. The new letter outlines the consequences of failing to pass a farm bill this year, stating: “Millions of Americans rely daily on the provisions of the Farm Bill to produce food, fiber, and fuel; feed their families and others around the world; voluntarily conserve fish and wildlife and their habitat; provide sustainable solutions for clean air and water; offer a producer safety net; facilitate international trade; create local jobs and robust economies; and support rural development nationwide. “If Congress does not enact a bipartisan Farm Bill this year, the legislative process will begin anew in the 119th Congress. Stakeholders note that given the significant legislative and administrative duties of a new Congress, including seating new leadership and committees, Senate nominations, and other essential actions during the first months of the 119th Congress, it may not be feasible to advance a new Farm Bill early in the next Congress.” In a news release, the Land Trust Alliance added: “As committed stakeholders and beneficiaries of the farm bill, we cannot continue to wait for updated policies, provisions, initiatives, and critical funding that support our collective interests.”

2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Politics DA › NEG › Will Pass

Senate embrace framework for the farm bill

United States Senate Committee ’24 [Agriculture; July 19; Newsroom for US Senate on Agriculture, Nutrition, & Forestry, “Senate Republicans Embrace Framework That Puts More Farm in the Farm Bill,” https://www.agriculture.senate.gov/newsroom/rep/press/release/senate-republicans-embrace-framework-that-puts-more-farm-in-the-farm-bill]

WASHINGTON ––U.S. Senate Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry Committee Ranking Member John Boozman (R-AR) unveiled the Senate Republican Farm Bill Framework to a wave of vocal support from his colleagues who have praised the framework’s focus on putting more farm in the farm bill as a real path forward toward a bipartisan farm bill. “Ranking Member Boozman put forward a Republican Farm Bill Framework that would give our colleagues a good place to start. The Ranking Member’s plan reflects the actual reality of owning and operating a farm today. And it addresses the biggest bone of contention among American producers: Less fluff, and more farm in the farm bill. From bolstering the farmer safety net… To expanding our competitiveness in world markets… To providing new producers with the means to get off the ground. I’ve served on the Agriculture Committee my entire time in the Senate – I know drafting this legislation is never easy. And I’m grateful to the Ranking Member for his work on this important issue. I hope that my colleagues on both sides of the aisle will look to this framework for guidance as we work to deliver certainty and stability to America’s farmers.” – “I am tremendously grateful to Senator Boozman for his work on this framework and his efforts to move the farm bill process forward. And I hope that my Democrat colleagues will approach pursuing a bipartisan agreement on this legislation with a new seriousness. As I said earlier, their focus on non-farm priorities has slowed progress on the farm bill. And I hope that the House’s recent work and Senator Boozman’s efforts will encourage them to focus on what should be the substance of any farm bill – namely, the farm.” – “Farmers, especially our producers and folks in rural communities across Iowa, are long overdue for an updated farm bill, and Senate Republicans are working to deliver one. Instead of Democrats’ far left agenda that fixates on Green New Deal priorities and out of control spending at the expense of the farm safety net and producers, Republicans are truly putting more ‘farm’ in the farm bill.” – “My Republican colleagues and I have long called for more ‘farm’ in the farm bill. The Senate Republican framework clearly seeks to better support farmers… I sincerely hope this Republican framework will move the farm bill forward, so we can give farmers a safety net without holes and the certainty they need.” – “It’s past time to act and move past the outdated 2018 Farm Bill. The framework offered by Senator Boozman should help move our committee toward completing a new farm bill this year, one that is bipartisan and fiscally responsible. The framework recommends important reforms to help American farmers and ranchers handle declining incomes, market volatility, historic inflation, record-high input costs, catastrophic natural disasters, animal disease outbreaks, and global tensions. Overall, it provides answers to so many of the recommendations we’ve heard in hearings over the past few years to put more ‘farm’ in the farm bill.” --

2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Politics DA › NEG › Will Pass

Senate will pass bill now.

Mugar et al. ’24 [Carolyn; June 13; Executive Director of Farm Aid; “Agriculture Appropriations Process Begins Again While Future Of Farn Bill Remains Uncertain,” https://www.farmaid.org/blog/the-latest-updates-on-the-2023-farm-bill/]

Meanwhile, on June 12, Republicans on the Senate Agriculture Committee released a very general framework for their version of a Senate farm bill. The summary lacks any specific funding details and is a very high-level overview, but at first glance appears to be very similar to the House’s Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2024 (otherwise known as the farm bill) that passed in May. The move could signal that there is momentum building in the Senate around an effort to pass a farm bill before the end of the year.

2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Politics DA › NEG › Will Pass

Farm Bill needs to pass now—if it doesn’t, we’ll have to wait until next summer or later for it to happen

Carah Hart ’24, 2024 President for the National Association of Farm Broadcasting; Brownfield; “AG GROUPS ASK CONGRESS TO PASS A NEW FARM BILL THIS YEAR”; 7/23/24; https://www.brownfieldagnews.com/news/ag-groups-ask-congress-to-pass-a-new-farm-bill-this-year/; //AR!

More than 500 state and national ag groups sent a letter to chamber and agriculture committee leaders in the U.S. House and Senate, asking them to enact a new farm bill in the current Congress.

American Farm Bureau Federation Vice President and South Dakota Farm Bureau President Scott VanderWal tells Brownfield lawmakers need to come the table to work out their differences.

2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Politics DA › NEG › Will Pass

The bill will pass—530 ag organizations signed on to a letter to Congress asking them to pass it

Haylie Shipp 7/24, 2010 recipient of the Horizon Award from the National Association of Farm Broadcasting; AG INFORMATION NETWORK; 7/24/24; https://www.aginfo.net/report/60245/Southeast-Regional-Ag-News/Collaboration-Defined-Over-500-Orgs-Unite-for-New-Farm-Bill; //AR!

The American Farm Bureau Federation, and 529 other organizations have now joined together to tell lawmakers that programs that benefit every family in American are too important to put off any longer. Joe Gilson, director of congressional relations for AFBF says the letter is urging Congress to pass a modernized farm bill…

“If we do not pass a new farm bill and push it to the next Congress there are significant legislative and administrative duties in a new Congress, and it's just going to be pushed down the road even further.”

2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Elections DA › AFF › Thumper—Economy

Economy and immigration outweigh—not patents

Nate Cohn 7/22, The Times’s chief political analyst, “If Harris Is the Nominee, It Still Won’t Be Easy to Beat Trump”, The New York Times, , July 22, 2024

In the end, Ms. Harris and the Democrats might win a coin-flip election by campaigning on abortion and democracy, just as Mr. Biden’s advocates hoped he would. But it’s far harder to be confident about that assumption today. After all, Mr. Biden had been trailing in the polls for essentially 10 straight months — long before the first presidential debate.

The polls have offered a long list of explanations for his weakness, and many of them had nothing to do with his age. A majority of voters have said the country is heading in the wrong direction. They have said the economic and political system in the country is broken. They’re deeply concerned about the economy and immigration — two of Mr. Trump’s strongest issues in surveys. In poll after poll, voters say they’re looking for change.

2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Elections DA › AFF › Harris Loses—Swing Voters

Harris Loses Independent Women – key to swing states like Michigan

Lewis 7/24/24 (Kaitlin Lewis is a Newsweek reporter on the Night Team based in Boston, Massachusetts. Her focus is reporting on national news and politics, where she has covered events such as the 2022 Midterm Election, live campaign rallies and candidate debates for Newsweek. Newsweek. 2024.‘Kamala Harris Has an Independent Women Problem, According to New Poll’ )

Vice President Kamala Harris appears to be trailing among independent women voters since announcing her run for the presidency, per a recent national poll.

Harris has made big waves among the Democratic Party since being endorsed by President Joe Biden to take his place at the top of the party's ticket this November. As of Monday, her campaign said that she has secured enough support from delegates to be her party's presumptive nominee, and the last 48 hours have brought in a record number of donations for Democrats.

2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Elections DA › AFF › Harris Won’t Win

Harris isn’t electable – even according to Dems

Isaac Schorr 7/23/24 (Isaac S. Isaac Schorr is a staff writer at Mediaite and a 2023–2024 Robert Novak Journalism Fellow at the Fund for American Studies. 2024. ‘The New York Times Rates 10 Democrats’ Chances of Beating Trump — And Puts Kamala Harris Dead Last’ Mediaite. ) BC

On a 10-point scale, Harris was rated a 4.6, and was one of only two candidates to have the average of their electability scores fall below 5 (California Governor Gavin Newsom was the other, at 4.9).

“She has no demonstrated appeal to swing voters, and she cannot run away from the Biden-Harris record on inflation and immigration,” wrote Josh Barro.

2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Elections DA › AFF › Trump Wins—Traders

Trump wins, 5 point margin

Revell 7/25 [Eric Revell, 7/25/2024, Eric Revell is a writer for FOX Business and Fox News Digital. Prior to joining Fox in 2022, Eric spent eight years as a writer and editor for Countable covering politics and the economy, Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris: What do the betting markets say?, ]

President Biden's decision on Sunday to drop out of the presidential race and Vice President Harris gaining the support to become the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee hasn't caused a dramatic shift in betting markets' views of the matchup with Republican nominee former President Trump.

Biden's decision on Sunday to withdraw from the race came after intense pressure from Democrat politicians who were concerned about his waning support amid concerns over his health and mental acuity in the wake of his poor debate performance against Trump on June 27.

2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Elections DA › AFF › Trump Wins—Haley Voters

Cease and desist from Haley denies Kamala Votes

Navarro 7/24 (Aaron Navarro is a CBS News digital reporter covering the 2024 elections. Joined the political unit in 2019. ‘Haley voters for Harris" group gets cease and desist request from Nikki Haley’; CBS News; 2024; )

The "Haley Voters for Harris" political action committee, which had been working with President Biden's and rebranded to support Vice President's Kamala Harris' campaign, has gotten a cease and desist letter from former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley.

In a letter sent Tuesday by a law firm representing Haley's presidential campaign, they wrote the group must "cease and desist from any unlawful use of Ambassador Haley's name in your political action committee name, and from any use of her name, image or likeness that implies her support for the election of Kamala Harris as President of the United States."

2024 Michigan Disadvantage
Elections DA › AFF › Trump Wins—Battleground States

Trump leads and will win – majority of polls show

Dorn 7/24 (Sara D. is a Forbes news reporter who covers politics, with a focus on elections and Capitol Hill. She joined Forbes in 2022 and is based in New York. She's covered the 2022 midterms, 2024 presidential campaign, the January 6 House committee investigation, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy's historic ouster, the 2023 State of the Union Address, former President Donald Trump's federal election interference and classified documents cases and his Manhattan hush money case. Dorn graduated in 2012 from the University of Dayton with a degree in journalism. Prior to joining Forbes, she covered New York City and state politics for the New York Post and City and State magazine. Follow her for updates and analysis on the 2024 presidential race, key Senate and House races and developments in Congress and at the White House. 2024. Forbes. Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Trump Narrowly Leads In Most Polls After Biden Drops Out ) BC

Former President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by three or fewer points in four surveys taken after President Joe Biden dropped his re-election bid—but trails Harris in a fifth survey.

Trump leads Harris by three points, 49% to 46%, in an online CNN/SSRS survey taken July 22-23; by two points, 47% to 45%, in a Morning Consult poll; and by one point, 46% to 45%, in a NPR/PBS/Marist poll.