Search the archive.

Humans have fought over food and the means of producing it for 20,000 years, as rock art in Australia shows. Food, water and land scarcity are primary drivers in two thirds of modern conflicts today. Indeed, many people seem to have forgotten that the primary German war aim in World War II was to take farmland from the Soviets and put German farmers on it. It is very likely that controlling the Ukraine’s bountiful and reliable food bowl is among Putin’s main aims also. In the short run this is imposing hunger and even starvation on hundreds of millions of people far beyond Europe. Spreading hunger in turn snowballs into government failures, civil wars and refugee tsunamis around the world – as it did in 2008 when a shortfall in Ukrainian grain exports led to revolutions in three Arab countries. Already, a third of a billion people – equal to the entire population of Europe – leave their homes each year, either as refugees or economic migrants, to seek better lives in countries which seem more stable and food secure. War will add to the flood. Thus, in developing a new food system for the world of the 21st Century, we also have to find a way to curb the human appetite for war. In , I trace the links between food and conflict through human history, explore the role of food in recent conflicts and examine nine regions of the world which are at high risk of food failure and conflict in the foreseeable future – conflicts ranging from riots and government failure to nuclear war. My aim is to show that the link between food and war is inexorable – but that it can be broken. And that having enough good food is the most under-rated, under-recognised and precious ‘weapon of peace’ in the world today.

The war raging in Ukraine has exacerbated food insecurity across the world — and food aid experts are looking to the 2023 farm bill for solutions. Ukraine’s massive grain supplies typically feed 400 million people per year, but the war has “drastically cut supplies” and driven up food costs for consumers in rich and poor countries alike, according to the World Food Program (WFP). U.S. legislators are currently drafting the farm bill, an omnibus agriculture act passed every five years, which includes provisions for international food assistance. The farm bill authorizes a number of domestic and international food aid programs. The legislation doesn’t fully authorize funding for this aid, which must be decided in separate appropriations, but it outlines how each program runs and how it can use future funds. Lawmakers can use the must-pass farm bill draft to amend these programs as needed. Experts like Rebecca Middleton, chief advocacy and engagement officer for World Food Program USA, are hoping to see “robust authorization” for food aid support in the 2023 farm bill — especially the Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust, Middleton said. The Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust builds up over time and then can be cashed out at the authorization of the secretary of Agriculture. In April 2022, $282 million was withdrawn from the Emerson Trust to support countries in need after the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict threatened food supplies in six major countries facing food insecurity: Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan and Yemen. The withdrawn money was used to obtain U.S. commodities and bolster existing aid in those countries, according to a U.S. Agency for International Development spokesperson. The Emerson Trust was renamed to honor former Mississippi Rep. Bill Emerson in 1998 but was originally established in 1980 as a wheat reserve. Because of rising food prices, in 2008, the Department of Agriculture converted the trust into a cash reserve that can be used to purchase U.S. commodities in times of need. The trust was most recently reauthorized in the 2018 farm bill, and Congress must reauthorize the Emerson Trust in the 2023 legislation. Congress also has the authority to replenish funds after they are withdrawn. “For all of those accounts [in the farm bill], the one that we’re really interested in is the Emerson Trust because it’s an account that’s not very well known, but is absolutely vital in situations like the one that we found ourselves in in 2022,” Middleton said. “It’s really absolutely vital assistance that the U.S. was able to provide because of that emergency account in this time of historic need.” The 2018 farm bill did not account for such crises like the COVID-19 pandemic or the Russia-Ukraine conflict, both which have had severe effects on supply and triggered more aid from the federal government, so the Emerson Trust was an essential resource in recent years. “I mean, the need was extraordinary and then just compounded with the shock to the global food supply chain with the Ukrainian crisis,” Middleton said. Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), the former ranking member of the House Agriculture Committee’s subcommittee on nutrition, said in a statement that he supports keeping international food aid well-funded in the new legislation. “The FY 2023 farm bill reauthorization needs to continue to build on the trajectory of the past two decades and ensure that the U.S., in partnership with American farmers and non-profits, can respond swiftly and comprehensively to global humanitarian emergencies and invest in longer-term resilience and sustainability, especially for small farmers, so that they may more successfully withstand future economic and climate shocks,” McGovern said in a statement to The Hill. In addition to the Emerson Trust withdrawal, the Biden administration committed $2.76 billion toward global food security last summer, on top of Biden and other G7 leaders’ contributing $4.5 billion to the issue in 2022. High prices for fuel and fertilizer, theft of farm equipment, destruction of agricultural facilities, and the blockade of Black Sea ports all threatened to push millions of people internationally into poverty, hunger and malnutrition starting in 2022, according to the White House. The Horn of Africa faced a particularly acute crisis due to prolonged drought and famine. Dalton Henry, vice president of policy for U.S. Wheat Associates, is hoping to see solutions in the 2023 farm bill that prioritize using U.S. commodities as a “cornerstone” of donations to regions in need. “We have a tremendous priority placed on making sure that hungry people around the world get fed and the farm bill programs do such a good job at doing that with commodities,” Henry said. He added that it’s “hard to say” how much farm bill policies will change from past years, but that the Russia-Ukraine war has inflamed existing hunger and food insecurity due to global conflicts like those in Ethiopia and Yemen. Henry said the war in Ukraine has made the need for international food aid more prominent. “I think that, if anything, one of the big impacts is that the war has put global food security much more front of mind for a lot of folks,” Henry said, “and probably shone a little bit more of a light on some of these programs that normally kind of fly under the radar.”

President Biden invited a bipartisan group of lawmakers to the White House this afternoon to discuss the upcoming farm bill reauthorization. Invitees include Rep. G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.), Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), Rep. David Scott (D-Ga.), and USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack. Stabenow labeled the session as a chance to “have a broader discussion about the farm bill and all the implications for it,” and that it will show “we are working together in a bipartisan way.” She also noted it was a chance for both sides to share their priorities for the bill. Thompson signaled he wants to hear a “commitment from everyone including the president that we will get this done and done in the manner I've been speaking about. Bipartisan, bicameral, on time and highly effective." Boozman said the session is a “step in the right direction” and he wants to see the discussion focus on “the fastest path forward” for the omnibus legislation. Farm Bill Meeting Perspective It’s always good to have a president’s attention on a big topic like the farm bill. It will be interesting to see if Biden/Vilsack detail any must-haves in a new farm bill. Food stamp funding and implementation flexibility, conservation and climate-smart programs are key possible administration topics. History has a lot of examples of how some White House officials wanted to take a more active role in a farm bill only to find that lawmakers write it, not the executive branch. However, a president must sign the omnibus bill and if it is vetoed, override votes are needed--a situation that has occurred before.

Stakeholders continue to provide testimony on the $1.2 trillion Farm Bill being considered by the U.S. House Committee on Agriculture on a daily basis. The ultimate goal is releasing the bill to the full House for a vote in mid-September, said Committee Chair Glenn Thompson, R-15, Bellefonte. Thompson is the first chairman of the Agriculture Committee from Pennsylvania in nearly 170 years. He said he wants the Farm Bill to be bipartisan, bicameral and highly effective. The Farm Bill touches the lives of every American family, multiple times a day, and provides resources and safety-net programs for farm families “that are in Congressional District 15, which has 18 counties, including Union and Snyder. And throughout Pennsylvania,” Thompson said. “The programs we have are not handouts. The modern Farm Bill is based on public-private partnerships,” he said. The bill is important for farmers because it includes things like crop insurance and conservation programs. But overall it addresses issues common in rural America. The bill has 12 Titles, some miscellaneous, or categories, that include everything from rural broadband and rural utilities to helping municipalities with water and sewage projects. Other Titles address workforce development, and access to food through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, as well as funding food banks and food pantries. Title four of the Farm Bill is nutrition. Forty-two million people in America are eligible for SNAP, Thompson said. The Central Pennsylvania Food Bank CEO and Executive Director Joe Arthur said he has been “keeping close watch on this year’s funding of title four.” “Where we are now is that we are having hearings and roundtables every day in Washington,” Thompson said. “And we will continue to do that right up until we pass this bill out of committee. I am shooting for having this done by mid-September, before the deadline, and having it on the House floor. That’s my goal and I am sticking to it.” Thompson is now meeting with the freshmen members of Congress and has formed groups with expertise in different areas such as content, and Farm Bill processes.

Fiscal redistribution is defined as the reduction in income inequality, brought about by government via taxes and transfers. Their findings indicate that only in countries characterized as young democracies do elections exert a positive impact on fiscal redistribution.

Dalton (1971) defines redistribution as the obligatory payment of money to a central political authority which uses the receipts for its own maintenance, to provide community services, and as an emergency reserve in case there is a community disaster. Thus, in the context of leisure services, redistribution involves the obligatory payment of property and sales taxes to local and state governments, and income taxes to state and federal governments, which redistribute portions of what they receive to provide leisure services for the community.

(noun) The transfer of income, property, or wealth from one individual or group to another individual or group.

fiscal /'fisk(ə)1/ ► adj. 1 relating to government revenue, especially taxes. 2 chiefly N. Amer. relating to financial

matters. ■ N. Amer. denoting a financial year: the deficit for fiscal 2008.

Battisti and Zeira 16- Joseph Stiglitz is an extremely high-profile and well-regarded economist who won the Nobel Prize for Economic Sciences in 2001. Kaushik Basu is also a very wellknown and respected economist who currently holds the position of Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of the World Bank.

Michele Battisti & Joseph Zeira, "The Effects of Fiscal Redistribution," SpringerLink, xx-xx-2016, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9781137554543_7-- 嘉玮

To remedy this, we have been long-time advocates of the permanent establishment of a federal job guarantee to eliminate working poverty and involuntary unemployment. Our plan constitutes a genuine public option for employment that enables existing workers, particularly those confined to the low end of the labor market, to bargain and obtain higher wages, greater benefits and better working conditions. The job guarantee would offer a permanent, viable alternative to low pay, low benefits and poor working conditions for all Americans. It would produce a structural transformation of the American labor market and the American economy.

Mao Ning, "Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning’s Regular Press Conference on December 8, 2022," Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, 12-8-2022, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_665399/s2510_665401/202212/t20221208_10987235.html-- 嘉玮

China Daily: According to reports, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency said in a press release on December 6 that the State Department had approved sales of aircraft parts and equipment to Taiwan. Taiwan’s defense department has said the sales will help its air force operations. What’s your comment?

Garrett Ehinger, "Don’t Make Taiwan Our Newest Forever War," Inkstick, 3-14-2023, https://inkstickmedia.com/dont-make-taiwan-our-newest-forever-war/-- 嘉玮

In fact, not only would US involvement in the conflict inflame China’s drive to win or better their odds of victory, but the potential of involvement itself could propel Taiwan into the arms of the Chinese Communist Party before an invasion ever happens. Taiwan may not want to be caught in the middle of a US-China war, and while it might be happy to continue posturing and playing both sides, further US provocation of China might spook Taiwan away from its typical posturing and toward a preemptive reconciliation with China. This is evidenced by sweeping electoral victories by the pro-detente Kuomintang (KMT) party following Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s (D-Calif) visit to Taiwan in August 2022, where 13 of the 21 cities and counties up for grabs were stolen from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party. The KMT most notably took four of the six biggest metropolitan areas accounting for 70% of Taiwan’s population.

(Clark) Aoqi Wu, "To reassure Taiwan and deter China, the US should learn from history," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 3-13-2023, https://thebulletin.org/premium/2023-03/to-reassure-taiwan-and-deter-china-the-us-should-learn-from-history/-- 嘉玮

As the US grand strategy toward China gradually shifted from engagement to containment (in all but name) during the Trump administration, the Taiwanese are increasingly concerned about being entrapped. Rather than allaying their concerns, increased US economic and military support for Taiwan has caused some Taiwanese policy experts (especially those associated with the KMT) to think that US policymakers have ulterior motives (Situation Room 2023; Chu 2023). Especially after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, many KMT politicians believed that the real strategic intent of the United States is to “Ukraine-ize” Taiwan—that is, to provoke a military conflict in Taiwan, so China is caught in the same quagmire of war that Russia now has encountered in Ukraine (Situation Room 2023; Chu 2023; Liu 2023).

Robert D. Blackwill, "Policy Prescriptions for U.S.-China Relations," Council on Foreign Relations, 01-09-2023, https://www.cfr.org/blog/policy-prescriptions-us-china-relations-- 嘉玮

But first, let me stress that in my view in recent times, neither the United States nor China has made such specific policy proposals to reduce tensions. Rather, daily mutual denunciation has been the order of the day. To depart this road to global catastrophe will require compromise and political will from both sides. Neither of those have been present in recent years. The Chinese have an aphorism that applies here, “If you want to catch a fish, don’t climb a tree.” In recent years, Washington and Beijing have climbed ever higher in the tree.

A. Trevor Thrall and Jordan Cohen, "Time to Rethink Arms Sales to Taiwan," Defense One, 11-2-2020, https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/11/time-rethink-arms-sales-taiwan/169702/-- 嘉玮

On the other hand, the observation that arms sales to Taiwan increase tensions with China should be an uncontroversial one. China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Zhao Lijian, said that these sales “seriously damage China’s sovereignty and security interests, send a seriously wrong signal to Taiwan independence forces, and severely damage China-U.S. relations and peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.” Zhao added that China will make a “legitimate and necessary response” because of the sales.

Irene Entringer García Blanes, Shauna N. Gillooly, Susan Peterson, Michael J. Tierney, "Poll: What Is the Likelihood of War Over Taiwan?," Foreign Policy, 4-13-2023, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/13/china-attack-taiwan-war-expert-poll-biden/-- 嘉玮

Will China invade Taiwan?

Hemant Adlakha, "10 Reasons Xi Won’t Attack Taiwan Anytime Soon," The Diplomat, 1-20-2023, https://thediplomat.com/2023/01/10-reasons-xi-wont-attack-taiwan-anytime-soon/-- 嘉玮

Here are 10 practical constraints making it highly unlikely that China will resort to using force.

Jason Petty, "How Hackers of Submarine Cables May Be Held Liable Under the Law of the Sea," Chicago Journal of International law 6-22-2021, https://cjil.uchicago.edu/print-archive/how-hackers-submarine-cables-may-be-held-liable-under-law-sea-- 嘉玮

UNCLOS provides similar protections for submarine cables in the EEZ as in territorial waters, though jurisdiction is less clear. Again, similar to territorial waters, while states are required to “adopt the laws and regulations necessary to provide that the breaking or injury by a ship flying its flag or by a person subject to its jurisdiction of a submarine cable beneath the high seas done willfully or through culpable negligence… be a punishable offense,”78 most states have not done so.79 Unlike territorial waters, however, coastal states’ regulations in the EEZ or the continental shelf do not apply to foreign nationals who intentionally break or damage cables.80 This means states in the EEZ and the continental shelf can only hold their own citizens that injure cables liable under their domestic laws. While some states have made novel legal arguments about submarine cables as being in a protected zone of exploitation,81 the majority of states accept domestic jurisdiction does not extend to cables in the EEZ.82 In the instance of hacking, this would mean coastal states could only address domestic hackers, which, while potentially useful for private actors, does not likely apply to the majority of hacking incidents, which are largely committed by foreign governments

Erica D. Lonergan, "The Cyber-Escalation Fallacy," Foreign Affairs, 4-15-2022, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2022-04-15/cyber-escalation-fallacy-- 嘉玮

In fact, the negligible role of cyberattacks in the Ukraine conflict should come as no surprise. Through war simulations, statistical analyses, and other kinds of studies, scholars have found little evidence that cyber-operations provide effective forms of coercion or that they cause escalation to actual military conflict. That is because for all its potential to disrupt companies, hospitals, and utility grids during peacetime, cyberpower is much harder to use against targets of strategic significance or to achieve outcomes with decisive impacts, either on the battlefield or during crises short of war. In failing to recognize this, U.S. officials and policymakers are approaching the use of cyberpower in a way that may be doing more harm than good—treating cyber-operations like any other weapon of war rather than as a nonlethal instrument of statecraft and, in the process, overlooking the considerable opportunities as well as risks they present.

David E. Sanger, Nicole Perlroth and Julian E. Barnes, "Billions Spent on U.S. Defenses Failed to Detect Giant Russian Hack (Published 2020)," No Publication, 12-16-2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/us/politics/russia-hack-putin-trump-biden.html-- 嘉玮

WASHINGTON — Over the past few years, the United States government has spent tens of billions of dollars on cyberoffensive abilities, building a giant war room at Fort Meade, Md., for United States Cyber Command, while installing defensive sensors all around the country — a system named Einstein to give it an air of genius — to deter the nation’s enemies from picking its networks clean, again.